Borussia Dortmund
vs
Werder Bremen
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Werder Bremen
The model makes it 66% Borussia Dortmund, 22% draw, 12% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.14, Werder Bremen 0.66.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Borussia Dortmund are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Werder Bremen.
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Borussia Dortmund.
- Last 6 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 October 2026, ended Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Borussia Dortmund71%
- Level after ninety minutes19%
- Werder Bremen10%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 66% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt14 October 2026
- D2-2Werder Bremen9 October 2026
- W1-0away to VfB Stuttgart19 September 2026
- W3-0SC Paderborn 0712 September 2026
- W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
Werder Bremen
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
- W3-2FC Augsburg19 September 2026
- D1-1away to 1. FC Köln12 September 2026
- W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026
What these results say
- Borussia Dortmund scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Werder Bremen.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen have met 6 times in the records we hold, Borussia Dortmund has won 3 of them to Werder Bremen's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Borussia Dortmund on 9 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 |
| Werder Bremen | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 9 Oct 2026
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen - 16 May 2026
BundesligaWerder Bremen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund - 13 Jan 2026
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 3–0 Werder Bremen - 25 Jan 2025
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen - 31 Aug 2024
BundesligaWerder Bremen 0–0 Borussia Dortmund - 9 Mar 2024
BundesligaWerder Bremen 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.29 | 0.63 |
| Werder Bremen | 0.87 | 1.02 |
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
No leading scorers listed yet.
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug40
- M. Grüll24
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Borussia Dortmund carry a model rating of 7.21 against 6.77 for Werder Bremen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.66 for Werder Bremen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borussia Dortmund rate 1.29 in attack and 0.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Werder Bremen rate 0.87 and 1.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,805 correct results out of 3,781 settled predictions (48%), with 379 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund against 0.66 for Werder Bremen. Borussia Dortmund's attack/defence rating is 1.29/0.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.02 for Werder Bremen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Borussia Dortmund at home · Werder Bremen away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Borussia Dortmund 5, Werder Bremen 5.
Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Werder Bremen have let in 3 there.
Werder Bremen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Borussia Dortmund have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Borussia Dortmund
- at Bayern München31 Oct · Bundesligawin 27%
- vs Real Betis4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 54%
- vs SV Elversberg7 Nov · Bundesligawin 62%
Werder Bremen
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim31 Oct · Bundesligawin 42%
- at VfB Stuttgart7 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs Hamburger SV22 Nov · Bundesligawin 47%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.