Tychy 71
vs
Pogoń Siedlce
Cup prediction
Our model says: Tychy 71 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce
The model makes it 38% Tychy 71, 30% draw, 32% Pogoń Siedlce — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tychy 71 1.23, Pogoń Siedlce 1.09.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pogoń Siedlce have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Puszcza Niepołomice.
- Last 4 meetings: Tychy 71 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Tychy 71.
Chance to go through
Cup Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Tychy 7139%
- Level after ninety minutes29%
- Pogoń Siedlce32%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Polish Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tychy 71 vs Pogoń Siedlce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tychy 71 at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tychy 71 vs Pogoń Siedlce
Tychy 71
No earlier matches on record this season.
Pogoń Siedlce
- L1-3Puszcza Niepołomice15 October 2026
- L0-1away to Podbeskidzie9 October 2026
- W2-1Arka Gdynia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów12 September 2026
- W2-0Stal Mielec29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Tychy 71 vs Pogoń Siedlce
- 12 April 2026Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Tychy 71I Liga
- 27 September 2025Tychy 71 1–3 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
- 7 March 2025Tychy 71 2–0 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
- 21 August 2024Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Tychy 71I Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tychy 71 carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.17 for Pogoń Siedlce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Tychy 71 and 1.09 for Pogoń Siedlce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tychy 71 rate 0.47 in attack and 2.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogoń Siedlce rate 0.39 and 1.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tychy 71 the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Tychy 71 against 1.09 for Pogoń Siedlce. Tychy 71's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.61 for Pogoń Siedlce.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tychy 71
No further matches on our board yet.
Pogoń Siedlce
- vs Ruch Chorzów3 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki8 Nov · I Ligawin 31%
- at Unia Skierniewice21 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- at Warta Poznań28 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.