Aarhus
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Aarhus 2–0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë
The model makes it 69% Aarhus, 19% draw, 12% Egnatia Rrogozhinë — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Aarhus 2.55, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.77.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Aarhus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aarhus are 34th on 0 points from 1 game; Egnatia Rrogozhinë are 11th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Aarhus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sonderjyske.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 69% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Aarhus
- L0-1away to Gent15 October 2026
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- D1-1FC Midtjylland15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Aarhus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Aarhus carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.23 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.55 goals for Aarhus and 0.77 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aarhus rate 0.80 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Egnatia Rrogozhinë rate 0.53 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Egnatia Rrogozhinë, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Aarhus against 0.77 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.85 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aarhus
- vs Viborg25 Oct · Superligawin 39%
- at Brondby1 Nov · Superligawin 36%
- vs SC Braga5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
- vs AC Horsens8 Nov · Superligawin 48%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- at Universitatea Craiova5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 8%
- vs Lincoln Red Imps FC26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 47%
- vs Kauno Žalgiris10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 39%
- at SC Braga17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 4%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.