Flamengo
vs
Estudiantes La Plata
CONMEBOL Libertadores prediction
Our model says: Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes La Plata
The model makes it 62% Flamengo, 24% draw, 14% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 1.61, 4.17 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Flamengo 1.92, Estudiantes La Plata 0.65.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Flamengo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Flamengo are top on 16 points from 6 games; Estudiantes La Plata are 2nd on 9 points from 6 games — CONMEBOL Libertadores, Group A.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Independiente del Valle.
- Estudiantes La Plata are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Corinthians.
- Last 4 meetings: Flamengo 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 May 2026, ended Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes La Plata.
Chance to go through
Second leg of the CONMEBOL Libertadores Semi-finals tie. First leg: Estudiantes La Plata v Flamengo, 16 Oct →
More predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 62% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata
Flamengo
- D1-1Independiente del Valle18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Independiente del Valle11 September 2026
- W2-1Cruzeiro20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cruzeiro13 August 2026
- W3-0Cusco27 May 2026
Estudiantes La Plata
- W1-0away to Corinthians17 September 2026
- D1-1Corinthians10 September 2026
- W3-0away to Universidad Catolica19 August 2026
- D1-1Universidad Catolica12 August 2026
- W1-0Independiente Medellin27 May 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes La Plata | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata
- 21 May 2026Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 30 April 2026Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 26 September 2025Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 19 September 2025Flamengo 2–1 Estudiantes La PlataCONMEBOL Libertadores
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Estudiantes La Plata
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Henrique52
- G. de Arrascaeta41
Estudiantes La Plata
GoalsAssists
- G. Carrillo30
- T. Palacios30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Flamengo carry a model rating of 7.06 against 6.74 for Estudiantes La Plata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Flamengo and 0.65 for Estudiantes La Plata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Flamengo rate 1.19 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estudiantes La Plata rate 0.85 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Flamengo against 0.65 for Estudiantes La Plata. Flamengo's attack/defence rating is 1.19/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.07 for Estudiantes La Plata.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Flamengo at home · Estudiantes La Plata away
League matches only, this season — Flamengo in the Serie A, Estudiantes La Plata in the Liga Profesional Argentina. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Flamengo 30 in the Serie A, Estudiantes La Plata 28 in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Flamengo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); Estudiantes La Plata have let in 2 there.
Estudiantes La Plata score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Flamengo have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Flamengo
- vs Atletico Mineiro26 Oct · Serie Awin 58%
- at Vasco da Gama29 Oct · Serie Awin 45%
- vs Gremio4 Nov · Serie Awin 67%
Estudiantes La Plata
- at Union Santa Fe26 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 36%
- vs Instituto Cordoba1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 41%
- at Talleres Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.