Fluminense
vs
Palmeiras
CONMEBOL Libertadores prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Fluminense, 31% draw, 32% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fluminense 1.14, Palmeiras 1.04.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Chance to go through
First leg of the CONMEBOL Libertadores Semi-finals tie. Second leg: Palmeiras v Fluminense, 22 Oct →
Aggregate: Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras
- Fluminense5%
- Level after both legs11%
- Palmeiras84%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes per leg, from the score matrices of the legs still to play. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions
Model insights: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1FábioG
- 23GugaD
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 29J. MillánD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 16NonatoM
- 8MartinelliM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 10PH GansoM
- 11J. SavarinoM
- 7HulkF
- 19R. CastilloF
- 32L. AcostaM
- 94OtávioM
- 35HérculesM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 44JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 90K. SernaF
- 30Y. SoteldoF
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 26MuriloD
- 15G. GómezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 4A. GiayM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 22J. PiquerezM
- 11J. AriasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 42J. LópezF
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 18MaurícioM
- 32E. MartínezM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 10PaulinhoF
- 56ArthurD
- 12KhellvenD
- 19R. SosaF
Form going into Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Fluminense
- L1-2away to Platense15 September 2026
- W2-0Platense8 September 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia11 August 2026
- W3-1Deportivo La Guaira28 May 2026
Palmeiras
- W1-0LDU de Quito9 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cerro Porteno19 August 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 August 2026
- W4-1Junior28 May 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Palmeiras won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Fluminense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
- 15 August 2026Fluminense 3–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 26 February 2026Palmeiras 2–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 November 2025Palmeiras 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 July 2025Fluminense 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 8 December 2024Palmeiras 0–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 25 July 2024Fluminense 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Palmeiras
Fluminense
No player in CONMEBOL Libertadores's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López34
- J. Arias32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.14 goals for Fluminense and 1.04 for Palmeiras; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: José Manuel López 45' (Palmeiras), Marlon Freitas 85' (Palmeiras), Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado 90' (Fluminense).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Fluminense against 1.04 for Palmeiras. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.74 for Palmeiras.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.