League Stage - 2 · 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadion Miejski, Poznan
Referee: Milos Milanovic
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Lech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Lech Poznan, 26% draw, 39% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.57, Bayer Leverkusen 1.68.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

65%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%1-2 9%2-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lech Poznan0%Draw1%Bayer Leverkusen99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Wojciech Monkaout: Terry Yegbe
15'
18'
🔁Martin Terrierout: Patrik Schick
25'
•Ibrahim Maza
29'
⚽Patrik Schick (pen)
32'
⚽Malik Tillman
38'
•Patrik Schick
Mateusz Skrzypczak
40'
41'
⚽Patrik Schick (pen)
🔁Mikael Ishakout: Y. Agnero
60'
🔁Leo Bengtssonout: Filip Jagiełło
60'
🔁Patrick Walemarkout: Daniel Håkans
60'
62'
🔁Nathan Tellaout: Moussa Diaby
62'
🔁Aleix Garcíaout: Robert Andrich
62'
🔁Miguel Gutiérrezout: Facundo Medina
68'
Robert Andrich
🔁Gustav Berggrenout: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
74'
76'
🔁Patrik Schickout: Afonso Moreira
80'
Moussa Diaby
88'
⚽Ibrahim Mazaassist: Afonso Moreira

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

39%Possession61%
10Shots22
3On target10
4Corners5
0.54xG5.4

Goals against chances

Lech Poznan0 from 0.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Bayer Leverkusen4 from 5.40 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 27W. MońkaD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 43A. KozubalM
  • 10P. WålemarkM
  • 9M. IshakM
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 77L. PalmaF
Substitutes
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 56W. SzymczakF
  • 21Pablo RodríguezM
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 24F. JagiełłoM
  • 11D. HåkansM
  • 53K. DelikatM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
  • 55Piotr BartczakD
Coach: N. Frederiksen
Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. FlekkenG
  • 17Lucas VázquezD
  • 5L. BadéD
  • 12E. TapsobaD
  • 3Miguel GutiérrezD
  • 6E. FernándezM
  • 24Aleix GarcíaM
  • 23N. TellaM
  • 10M. TillmanM
  • 30I. MazaM
  • 11M. TerrierF
Substitutes
  • 14P. SchickF
  • 4J. QuansahD
  • 9Afonso MoreiraF
  • 2F. MedinaD
  • 36N. LombG
  • 19M. DiabyF
  • 28J. BlaswichG
  • 8R. AndrichM
Coach: Carles Martínez

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

Lech Poznan

  • L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026

Bayer Leverkusen

  • W2-0Celje16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
36Lech Poznan200208-80
1Bayer Leverkusen220060+66

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

  • 15 October 2026Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer LeverkusenUEFA Europa League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.57 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.68 for Bayer Leverkusen; the game produced 0 and 4.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Patrik Schick 29' (Bayer Leverkusen), Malik Tillman 32' (Bayer Leverkusen), Patrik Schick 41' (Bayer Leverkusen), Ibrahim Maza 88' (Bayer Leverkusen).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 1.68 for Bayer Leverkusen. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.42/0.84 for Bayer Leverkusen.