Celta Vigo
vs
Juventus
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-2 Juventus.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Celta Vigo, 30% draw, 42% Juventus — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 0.97, Juventus 1.30.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Juventus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Juventus
Celta Vigo
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia16 September 2026
Juventus
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 7 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Juventus
- 15 October 2026Celta Vigo 1–1 JuventusUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Juventus
Celta Vigo
No league goals yet this season.
Juventus
GoalsAssists
- R. Kolo Muani11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Celta Vigo carry a model rating of 6.89 against 7.17 for Juventus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.30 for Juventus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta Vigo rate 0.85 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juventus rate 1.31 and 0.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.30 for Juventus. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.85/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.31/0.69 for Juventus.