League Stage - 2 · 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadion Z’dežele, Celje
Referee: Elcin Masiyev
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Celje 0-3 Omonia Nicosia.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Celje, 26% draw, 52% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Celje 0.98, Omonia Nicosia 1.80.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

53%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%0-1 11%0-2 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Omonia Nicosia at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celje0%Draw1%Omonia Nicosia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
•Loïs Diony
Artemijus Tutyskinas
13'
16'
⚽Jaden Sean Montnorassist: Ewandro
Łukasz Bejger
33'
🔁Luka Vesner Ticicout: Mario Kvesić
45'
Mario Kvesić
52'
59'
⚽Muamer Tankovićassist: Jean-Kevin Duverne
🔁Yaya Dukulyout: Benjamin Verbič
62'
🔁Łukasz Bejgerout: Alpha Richard·Diounkou
62'
🔁Papa Danielout: A. Kučys
62'
69'
🔁Loïs Dionyout: Andronikos Kakoullis
69'
🔁Muamer Tankovićout: Florin Tănase
69'
Jaden Sean Montnor
🔁Milot Avdyliout: Leonardo Koutris
73'
75'
🔁Jaden Sean Montnorout: Mihlali Mayambela
Benjamin Verbič
82'
83'
Senou Coulibaly
84'
⚽Senou Coulibalyassist: Mihlali Mayambela
89'
🔁Ewandroout: Loïc Nego
89'
🔁Senou Coulibalyout: Stefan Simić

Match stats — Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

61%Possession39%
12Shots14
2On target6
3Corners6
1xG2.13

Goals against chances

Celje0 from 1.00 xGless than the chances were worth
Omonia Nicosia3 from 2.13 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celje 4-4-2
  • 1Žan-Luk LebanG
  • 44Ł. BejgerD
  • 15Ž. ŽužekD
  • 6A. TutyškinasD
  • 11M. AvdyliD
  • 91Y. DukulyM
  • 13Papa Mustapha DanielM
  • 19M. ZabukovnikM
  • 14L. TičićM
  • 10S. SešlarF
  • 9B. KramerF
Substitutes
  • 25V. TushaF
  • 31D. SuhovrsnikF
  • 8M. KvesićM
  • 7B. VerbičM
  • 20A. DionkouD
  • 47A. KučysF
  • 23Ž. FrelihG
  • 4D. HrkaM
  • 77M. IvanšekF
Coach: Z. Željkovič
Omonia Nicosia 4-3-3
  • 40FabianoG
  • 93J. DuverneD
  • 5S. CoulibalyD
  • 37Ľ. ŠatkaD
  • 29J. BalkovecD
  • 74P. AndreouM
  • 22M. TankovicM
  • 14M. MarićM
  • 11EwandroF
  • 99L. DionyF
  • 7J. MontnorF
Substitutes
  • 27S. SimičD
  • 85A. NeophytouF
  • 77L. NégoD
  • 78Pantelis MichailG
  • 21M. MayambelaF
  • 1T. KaminskiG
  • 9A. KakoullisF
  • 92C. PanagiotisM
  • 20L. BrouwersM
Coach: H. Berg

Form going into Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

Celje

  • L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen16 September 2026

Omonia Nicosia

  • W1-0Celta Vigo16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
35Celje200205-50
2Omonia Nicosia220040+46

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

  • 15 October 2026Celje 0–3 Omonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Celje and Omonia Nicosia

Celje

No league goals yet this season.

Omonia Nicosia

GoalsAssists

  • J. Balkovec10

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 0.98 goals for Celje and 1.80 for Omonia Nicosia; the game produced 0 and 3.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Jaden Sean Montnor 16' (Omonia Nicosia), Muamer Tanković 59' (Omonia Nicosia), Senou Coulibaly 84' (Omonia Nicosia).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Celje against 1.80 for Omonia Nicosia. Celje's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.18/0.77 for Omonia Nicosia.