AZ Alkmaar
vs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% AZ Alkmaar, 24% draw, 18% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.00, Hapoel Beer Sheva 0.90.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AZ Alkmaar at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28J. De BusserG
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 3W. GoesD
- 29W. HoedtD
- 34M. de WitD
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 24A. OufkirM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 11R. DaalM
- 18B. KovacsF
- 27Wassim bouzianeF
- 5M. ChávezD
- 54Jerolldino BergraafF
- 8J. ClasieM
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 30D. KasiusD
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 1O. MarcianoG
- 2G. MizrahiD
- 44D. DiopD
- 15I. NachmiasD
- 5Pedro AmadorD
- 17A. ForsonM
- 25Lucas VenturaM
- 7E. PeretzM
- 45M. Abu RumiF
- 66I. ZlatanovićF
- 9Z. AhmedF
- 20J. EastF
- 28N. YehoshuaM
- 11A. GanahF
- 70João VictorF
- 8M. Kna'anF
- 4M. VítorD
- 12I. RotmanD
- 36Y. ShaniG
- 90A. UgarrizaF
Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-1away to Sunderland16 September 2026
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- D0-0Dinamo Zagreb16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
- 15 October 2026AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.90 for Hapoel Beer Sheva; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Peer Koopmeiners 49' (AZ Alkmaar), Forson Amankwah 55' (Hapoel Beer Sheva), Mexx Meerdink 77' (AZ Alkmaar).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar against 0.90 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. AZ Alkmaar's attack/defence rating is 1/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.21 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.