Benfica
vs
Celtic
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 4-1 Celtic.
Before kick-off the model made it 71% Benfica, 17% draw, 12% Celtic — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Benfica 2.86, Celtic 0.90.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Benfica vs Celtic
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 71% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Benfica vs Celtic
Benfica
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
Celtic
- L1-3Ferencvarosi TC17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 29 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Celtic
- 20 November 2012Benfica 2–1 CelticUEFA Champions League
- 19 September 2012Celtic 0–0 BenficaUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Benfica and Celtic
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- J. Kamiński11
- D. Lukebakio10
Celtic
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Benfica carry a model rating of 7.23 against 6.8 for Celtic. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.86 goals for Benfica and 0.90 for Celtic. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benfica rate 1.62 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celtic rate 0.96 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.86 expected goals for Benfica against 0.90 for Celtic. Benfica's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.07 for Celtic.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.