Europa League predictions

Thursday 22 October — 18 matches

• 16:45 UTC Lech Poznan vs Sunderland — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Edge: Lech Poznan
• 16:45 UTC Juventus vs Rennes — model 63% / 21% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.59 · 4.76 · 6.25. One-sided: Juventus
• 16:45 UTC Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen — model 48% / 25% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 4.00 · 3.70. Evenly matched
• 16:45 UTC Sturm Graz vs Marseille — model 29% / 28% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.57 · 2.33. Edge: Marseille
• 16:45 UTC Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense — model 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.57 · 4.00. Evenly matched
• 16:45 UTC OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen — model 17% / 21% / 62%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.88 · 4.76 · 1.61. One-sided: Bayer Leverkusen
• 16:45 UTC Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — model 71% / 19% / 10%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.41 · 5.26 · 10.00. One-sided: Union St. Gilloise
• 16:45 UTC Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar — model 13% / 20% / 67%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 7.69 · 5.00 · 1.49. One-sided: AZ Alkmaar
• 19:00 UTC Bournemouth vs AC Milan — model 31% / 27% / 42%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 3.70 · 2.38. Edge: AC Milan
• 19:00 UTC 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon — model 35% / 27% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.70 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
• 19:00 UTC Celtic vs Celta Vigo — model 38% / 30% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.33 · 3.13. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad — model 26% / 25% / 49%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.85 · 4.00 · 2.04. One-sided: Real Sociedad
• 19:00 UTC Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht — model 35% / 27% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.70 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
• 19:00 UTC Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace — model 52% / 24% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.17 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha — model 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.33 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Plzen vs Levski Sofia — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica — model 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.85 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
• 19:00 UTC Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg — model 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.57 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Last round: the model's hits and misses

15 October: the model called the result of 6 of 8 matches.

• AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva — the model said 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Celje 0–3 Omonia Nicosia — the model said 22% / 26% / 52%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen — the model said 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Lyon 3–2 Crystal Palace — the model said 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad — the model said 61% / 22% / 17%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
• Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC Milan — the model said 27% / 28% / 45%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Sparta Praha 1–1 Lillestrom — the model said 67% / 20% / 13%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
• Torreense 1–2 Sunderland — the model said 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 0-1: result correct.