League Stage - 2 · 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Torreense vs Sunderland UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria
Referee: Enea Jorgji
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Torreense 1-2 Sunderland.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Torreense, 29% draw, 38% Sunderland — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Torreense 1.22, Sunderland 1.34.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Torreense vs Sunderland

53%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%0-1 10%1-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sunderland at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Torreense3%Draw93%Sunderland4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Volnei Feltesassist: Amine Oudrhiri
37'
Jonathan Mutombo Mawesi
43'
45'
Trai Hume
58'
🔁Malick Fofanaout: Enzo Le Fée
58'
🔁Nilson Anguloout: Granit Xhaka
59'
🔁Trai Humeout: Nordi Mukiele
59'
🔁Dayann Methalieout: Reinildo Isnard Mandava
🔁Manuel Pozoout: Ianique Tavares Stopira
63'
🔁Jonathan Mutombo Mawesiout: David Bruno
63'
67'
⚽Jules Ahokaassist: Nordi Mukiele
🔁João Marquesout: Dany Jean
73'
🔁Karem Zoabiout: L. Quintero
73'
79'
Enzo Le Fée
85'
Nordi Mukiele
89'
•Timur Tutierov
🔁Malik Abubakariout: musa drammeh
90+2'
90+3'
⚽Noah Sadikiassist: Granit Xhaka

Match stats — Torreense vs Sunderland

39%Possession61%
3Shots22
1On target5
2Corners9
0.09xG1.82

Goals against chances

Torreense1 from 0.09 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sunderland2 from 1.82 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Torreense 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas PaesG
  • 45J. MutomboD
  • 5M. DiadieD
  • 4Volnei FeltesD
  • 23Javi VázquezD
  • 6A. OudrhiriM
  • 8Alejandro AlfaroM
  • 11Manu PozoM
  • 33João MarquesM
  • 19K. ZoabiM
  • 27M. AbubakariF
Substitutes
  • 2StopiraD
  • 29L. QuinteroF
  • 7D. JeanF
  • 53Rodrigo GuerreiroD
  • 17M. DrammehF
  • 22David BrunoD
  • 44S. HenriksenG
  • 3Juan María AlcedoD
  • 14Jorge AguirreF
Coach: Luís Tralhão
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
  • 22R. RoefsG
  • 32T. HumeD
  • 13L. O'NienD
  • 15O. AldereteD
  • 6D. MethalieD
  • 29Jules AhokaM
  • 27N. SadikiM
  • 10N. AnguloM
  • 11C. RiggM
  • 39M. FofanaM
  • 57Timur TuterovF
Substitutes
  • 9B. BrobbeyF
  • 4K. DansoD
  • 19H. DiarraM
  • 28E. Le FéeM
  • 17ReinildoD
  • 21S. MooreG
  • 20N. MukieleD
  • 77T. ProctorM
  • 47T. OgunsuyiF
Coach: R. Le Bris

Form going into Torreense vs Sunderland

Torreense

  • W2-1away to Lillestrom17 September 2026

Sunderland

  • W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Torreense21013303
4Sunderland220031+26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Torreense vs Sunderland

  • 15 October 2026Torreense 1–2 SunderlandUEFA Europa League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.22 goals for Torreense and 1.34 for Sunderland; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Volnei Feltes 37' (Torreense), Jules Ahoka 67' (Sunderland), Noah Sadiki 90' (Sunderland).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sunderland the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Torreense against 1.34 for Sunderland. Torreense's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.01 for Sunderland.