Rennes
vs
OFI
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Rennes 2-1 OFI.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Rennes, 19% draw, 16% OFI — fair odds of 1.54, 5.26 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Rennes 2.69, OFI 1.11.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Rennes vs OFI
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rennes at 65% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rennes vs OFI
Rennes
- D0-0away to Sturm Graz16 September 2026
OFI
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rennes vs OFI
- 15 October 2026Rennes 0–1 OFIUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Rennes and OFI
Rennes
No league goals yet this season.
OFI
GoalsAssists
- Aitor Cantalapiedra10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Rennes carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.57 for OFI. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.69 goals for Rennes and 1.11 for OFI. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rennes rate 1.15 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFI rate 0.80 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour OFI, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rennes the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Rennes against 1.11 for OFI. Rennes's attack/defence rating is 1.15/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.42 for OFI.