NEC Nijmegen
vs
Levski Sofia
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% NEC Nijmegen, 28% draw, 33% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.41, Levski Sofia 1.25.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEC Nijmegen at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
NEC Nijmegen
- L0-5away to Juventus17 September 2026
Levski Sofia
- L0-1Red Bull Salzburg17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| 28 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
- 15 October 2026NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski SofiaUEFA Europa League
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NEC Nijmegen carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.83 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.25 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEC Nijmegen rate 0.90 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.90 and 0.95.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Levski Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.25 for Levski Sofia. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.95 for Levski Sofia.