Lyon
vs
Crystal Palace
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lyon 3-2 Crystal Palace.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Lyon, 25% draw, 22% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lyon 1.85, Crystal Palace 1.00.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Europa League predictions
Model insights: Lyon vs Crystal Palace
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyon at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lyon vs Crystal Palace
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 21R. KluivertD
- 16AbnerD
- 23T. MortonM
- 99N. NarteyM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 18K. MerahM
- 7E. NuamahF
- 11Keito NakamuraF
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 24J. DuranvilleF
- 45R. HimbertF
- 85N. KamaraD
- 37Steeve KangoD
- 22Clinton MataD
- 19M. NiakhatéD
- 44W. BenítezG
- 26C. RichardsD
- 5A. DisasiD
- 6J. CanvotD
- 30Óscar MinguezaM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 23Q. TimberM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 7I. SarrM
- 10Yeremy PinoM
- 22J. Strand LarsenF
- 24D. OsorioM
- 9E. NketiahF
- 11D. McNeilF
- 31R. MatthewsG
- 25A. KhalailiD
- 18D. KamadaM
- 19W. HughesM
- 81Lucca BenettonG
- 54D. BenamarD
Form going into Lyon vs Crystal Palace
Lyon
- W2-1away to Anderlecht16 September 2026
Crystal Palace
- W4-0Lech Poznan17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Crystal Palace
- 5 August 2023Crystal Palace 2–0 LyonFriendlies Clubs
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.85 goals for Lyon and 1.00 for Crystal Palace; the game produced 3 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Corentin Tolisso 8' (Lyon), Ernest Nuamah 45' (Lyon), Yeremy Pino 50' (Crystal Palace), Pavel Šulc 76' (Lyon), Daichi Kamada 81' (Crystal Palace).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Lyon against 1.00 for Crystal Palace. Lyon's attack/defence rating is 1.04/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.08 for Crystal Palace.