Union St. Gilloise
vs
Real Sociedad
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Union St. Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Union St. Gilloise, 22% draw, 17% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.25, Real Sociedad 0.95.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12H. KoffiG
- 4N. ChibaniD
- 29M. SyllaD
- 55N. HavenaarD
- 6K. Van de PerreM
- 27L. PatrisM
- 23B. ZeneliM
- 28D. OlaruM
- 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva CarvalhoM
- 9M. BiondicF
- 38R. MofokengF
- 21D. De RoeveD
- 39youssef hamoutaharF
- 18G. KavelashviliG
- 43Daniel Tshilanda KabongoD
- 1V. ChambaereG
- 20D. AquinoF
- 32S. KeitaF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 5ZubeldiaD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 12J. OchiengM
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 24L. SučićF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 23A. ZakharyanM
- 7BarrenetxeaF
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 15Pablo MarínM
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Union St. Gilloise
- W3-0away to Plzen17 September 2026
Real Sociedad
- L1-2Bournemouth17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
- 15 October 2026Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real SociedadUEFA Europa League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.25 goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.95 for Real Sociedad; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Benat Turrientes 46' (Real Sociedad), Sekou Abrahame Keita 88' (Union St. Gilloise).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.95 for Real Sociedad. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.11 for Real Sociedad.