League Stage - 2 · 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Referee: Horatiu Fesnic
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Red Bull Salzburg, 28% draw, 46% AC Milan — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 1.05, AC Milan 1.56.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

52%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%0-1 11%1-2 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Milan at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Red Bull Salzburg0%Draw1%AC Milan99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Alphadjo Cissèassist: Omari Hutchinson
21'
Omari Hutchinson
32'
⚽Alphadjo Cissèassist: Davide Bartesaghi
Valentin Zabransky
40'
49'
⚽Alphadjo Cissèassist: Adrien Rabiot
🔁Sota Kitanoout: Gaoussou Diakité
60'
60'
🔁Alphadjo Cissèout: Christian Pulisic
60'
🔁Francesco Camardaout: Gonçalo Ramos
🔁Edmund Baidooout: Yorbe Vertessen
60'
61'
🔁Adrien Rabiotout: Luka Modrić
67'
🔁Fikayo Tomoriout: Filippo Terracciano
72'
⚽Gonçalo Ramos
🔁Jesper Lindstromout: Damir Redzic
73'
🔁Haris Tabakovićout: Aboubacar Sidiki Camara
73'
🔁Leandro Morgallaout: Tim Drexler
81'
81'
🔁Strahinja Pavlovicout: Sankhoun Diawara
83'
Filippo Terracciano

Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

52%Possession48%
14Shots15
2On target10
3Corners2
0.87xG4.05

Goals against chances

Red Bull Salzburg0 from 0.87 xGless than the chances were worth
AC Milan4 from 4.05 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1
  • 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
  • 39L. MorgallaD
  • 44K. BomaD
  • 47Valentin ZabranskyD
  • 31D. SchmidD
  • 32A. BarryM
  • 15B. MazurekM
  • 35J. LindstrømM
  • 8S. KitanoM
  • 20E. BaidooM
  • 9H. TabakovićF
Substitutes
  • 30G. DiakitéF
  • 21T. DrexlerD
  • 33A. CamaraM
  • 1C. FrüchtlG
  • 13F. KrätzigD
  • 22S. LainerD
  • 4J. MellbergD
  • 23D. RedzicF
  • 41Nikola ŠarčevićG
Coach: D. Röhl
AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 23F. TomoriD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovićD
  • 20O. HutchinsonM
  • 30A. JashariM
  • 12A. RabiotM
  • 33D. BartesaghiM
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekM
  • 70A. CissèM
  • 73F. CamardaF
Substitutes
  • 13S. BocoumD
  • 2P. EstupiñánD
  • 34Mario GilaD
  • 14L. ModrićM
  • 22Diego MoreiraF
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 11C. PulišićM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
Coach: Ruben Amorim

Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

Red Bull Salzburg

  • W1-0away to Levski Sofia17 September 2026

AC Milan

  • L0-2Benfica16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Red Bull Salzburg210114-33
10AC Milan210142+23

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

  • 2 November 2022AC Milan 4–0 Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Champions League
  • 6 September 2022Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 AC MilanUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan

Red Bull Salzburg

GoalsAssists

  • H. Tabaković10

AC Milan

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.05 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.56 for AC Milan; the game produced 0 and 4.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Alphadjo Cissè 15' (AC Milan), Alphadjo Cissè 32' (AC Milan), Alphadjo Cissè 49' (AC Milan), Gonçalo Ramos 72' (AC Milan).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.56 for AC Milan. Red Bull Salzburg's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/0.73 for AC Milan.