Atalanta
vs
Pafos
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 3-1 Pafos.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Atalanta, 23% draw, 15% Pafos — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Atalanta 2.08, Pafos 0.79.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: Atalanta vs Pafos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atalanta at 62% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atalanta vs Pafos
Atalanta
- W3-1Venezia12 October 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
Pafos
- W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026
- L0-2AEL18 September 2026
- W1-0away to AEK Larnaca13 September 2026
- D0-0Olympiakos7 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Atalanta and Pafos in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atalanta | Serie A | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Pafos | 1. Division | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Serie A · 1. Division
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Pafos
- 15 October 2026Atalanta 3–0 PafosUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Pafos
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović31
Pafos
No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Atalanta carry a model rating of 7.05 against 6.75 for Pafos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Atalanta and 0.79 for Pafos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atalanta rate 1.17 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pafos rate 0.84 and 1.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Atalanta against 0.79 for Pafos. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.03 for Pafos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.