CSKA Sofia
vs
Monaco
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% CSKA Sofia, 25% draw, 48% Monaco — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.29, Monaco 1.87.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21Fedor LapoukhovG
- 2PastorD
- 4Dinis AlmeidaD
- 32Facundo RodríguezD
- 17Ángelo MartinoD
- 6Bruno JordãoM
- 28Ioannis PittasM
- 7Max EbongM
- 8Stefano SensiM
- 38Léo PereiraM
- 9Leandro GodoyF
- 67Cătălin ItuM
- 10Joël ZwartsF
- 14Teodor IvanovD
- 94Isaac SoletM
- 99James Eto'oM
- 25Dimitar EvtimovG
- 31Daniel NikolovG
- 19Andrey YordanovD
- 91Aleks TunchevD
- 1Lukáš HrádeckýG
- 4Jordan TezeD
- 72Sadibou SanéD
- 22Mohammed SalisuD
- 13Christian MawissaD
- 18Takumi MinaminoM
- 8Lamine CamaraM
- 37Edan DiopM
- 17Stanis Idumbo MuzamboM
- 29Paris BrunnerF
- 31Ansu FatiF
- 20NazinhoD
- 6Denis ZakariaM
- 10Aleksandr GolovinM
- 11Matthis AblineF
- 46Anis SoubeirM
- 16Philipp KöhnG
- 2VandersonD
- 7Mathys DetourbetF
- 19Pape CabralM
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
CSKA Sofia
- W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
Monaco
- D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
- W2-1Lens18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monaco went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
- 15 October 2026CSKA Sofia 1–2 MonacoUEFA Europa Conference League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.29 goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.87 for Monaco; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: P. Brunner 3' (Monaco), A. Fati 43' (Monaco), J. Zwarts 76' (CSKA Sofia).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 1.87 for Monaco. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.9 for Monaco.