SC Freiburg
vs
FK Jablonec
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: SC Freiburg 3-2 FK Jablonec.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% SC Freiburg, 20% draw, 12% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 2.47, FK Jablonec 0.77.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 68% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. BackhausG
- 17L. KublerD
- 28M. GinterD
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 30C. GunterD
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 6P. OsterhageM
- 22C. IrieM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 32V. GrifoM
- 9L. HolerF
- 21F. MullerG
- 24J. HuthG
- 33J. MakengoD
- 5A. JungD
- 3P. LienhartD
- 29P. TreuD
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 20R. YamamotoM
- 31I. MatanovicF
- 1J. HanusG
- 18M. CedidlaD
- 4N. TekijaskiD
- 15D. PavlovicD
- 20J. SlamaD
- 6N. OkekeM
- 13R. SedlacekM
- 7V. ChanturishviliM
- 17S. AlioumM
- 21M. PolidarM
- 9A. RusekF
- 99K. MihelakG
- 57F. NovakD
- 14D. SoucekD
- 12D. NykrinD
- 31E. MalyD
- 8F. ZorvanM
- 24D. HollyM
- 25S. NebylaM
- 19J. ChramostaF
Form going into SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec
SC Freiburg
- W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
- W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
FK Jablonec
- W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Freiburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.47 goals for SC Freiburg and 0.77 for FK Jablonec; the game produced 3 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: V. Grifo 15' (SC Freiburg), A. Rusek 28' (FK Jablonec), D. Pavlovic 53' (SC Freiburg), M. Eggestein 65' (SC Freiburg), G. Kuol 90' (FK Jablonec).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 0.77 for FK Jablonec. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.18 for FK Jablonec.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.