HNK Hajduk Split
vs
Ajax
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 Ajax.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% HNK Hajduk Split, 28% draw, 44% Ajax — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 1.13, Ajax 1.56.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Toni SilićG
- 22Mathieu AcapandiéD
- 6Dennis HadžikadunićD
- 15Dario MarešićD
- 32Šimun HrgovićD
- 20Alberto del MoralM
- 8Khalil FayadM
- 7Abdoulie Sanyang BambaM
- 9Dalisson de AlmeidaM
- 23Marin ŠotičekM
- 11Michele ŠegoF
- 18Leander DendonckerM
- 5Alec Van HoorenbeeckD
- 17Dario MelnjakD
- 16Anđelo ŠutaloM
- 77Carlos MartínF
- 44Dante StipicaG
- 99Davyd FesyukG
- 14Ron RaçiD
- 3Roko GabrićD
- 1Marc-André Ter StegenG
- 6Thilo KehrerD
- 30Aaron BouwmanD
- 15Youri BaasD
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 18Davy KlaassenM
- 4Sofyan AmrabatM
- 8Julian BrandtM
- 11Viktor TsygankovF
- 99Tolu ArokodareF
- 68Abdellah OuazaneF
- 10Oscar GloukhM
- 24Jorthy MokioM
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 26Maarten PaesG
- 62Aymean el HaniG
- 5Owen WijndalD
- 36Dies JanseD
- 67Mohamed AbdallaM
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax
HNK Hajduk Split
- W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026
- L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
Ajax
- D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
- D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ajax conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ajax.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 31 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax
HNK Hajduk Split
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- O. Gloukh40
- D. Klaassen40
- T. Arokodare31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.13 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.56 for Ajax; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: A. Sanyang 37' (HNK Hajduk Split), D. Klaassen 53' (Ajax), M. Soticek 55' (HNK Hajduk Split).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 1.56 for Ajax. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.82 for Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.