KuPS
vs
Trabzonspor
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: KuPS 2-4 Trabzonspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% KuPS, 24% draw, 56% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 5.00, 4.17 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Expected goals: KuPS 0.96, Trabzonspor 1.97.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: KuPS vs Trabzonspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Trabzonspor at 56% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KuPS vs Trabzonspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Johannes KreidlG
- 29Akseli PuukkoD
- 4Kasim AdamsD
- 23Arttu LötjönenD
- 13Niilo KujasaloD
- 14Samuel PasanenM
- 8Petteri PennanenM
- 21Joslyn Luyeye-LutumbaM
- 34Julius EskesenM
- 24Bob Nii ArmahM
- 20Piotr ParzyszekF
- 9Gustav EngvallF
- 15Ayman AikiF
- 16Tommi JyryM
- 22Saikou TourayM
- 11Jaime MorenoF
- 12Hemmo RiihimäkiG
- 6Saku SavolainenF
- 25Clinton AntwiD
- 28Brahima MagassaD
- 24André OnanaG
- 20Wagner PinaD
- 4Samet AkaydınD
- 39Cenk ÖzkaçarD
- 57Melih KabasakalD
- 8Benjamin BouchouariM
- 3Batista MendyM
- 11Ozan TufanM
- 10Mohamed SalahF
- 30Paul OnuachuF
- 58Aral ŞimşirF
- 9Franculino DjúF
- 6FabinhoM
- 26Tim Jabol-FolcarelliM
- 70Noah SavioloF
- 7Ernest MuçiM
- 1Ahmet Doğan YıldırımG
- 96Erol Can ÇolakG
- 81Mustafa Kuzey AkcayD
- 82Yiğithan ÇubukcuM
Form going into KuPS vs Trabzonspor
KuPS
- L0-1away to Inter Turku11 October 2026
- L0-1AC Oulu8 October 2026
- W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
- D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
Trabzonspor
- W3-0away to Samsunspor10 October 2026
- W4-0Galatasaray19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Konyaspor12 September 2026
- W5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Amed31 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
- KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Trabzonspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Trabzonspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KuPS vs Trabzonspor
- 15 October 2026KuPS 2–4 TrabzonsporUEFA Europa Conference League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.96 goals for KuPS and 1.97 for Trabzonspor; the game produced 2 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: P. Onuachu 3' (Trabzonspor), M. Salah 44' (Trabzonspor), Franculino 47' (Trabzonspor), P. Pennanen 54' (KuPS), Franculino 90' (Trabzonspor), G. Engvall 90' (KuPS).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Trabzonspor the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for KuPS against 1.97 for Trabzonspor. KuPS's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/0.93 for Trabzonspor.