FC Lugano
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 3-2 FK Crvena Zvezda.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% FC Lugano, 29% draw, 23% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: FC Lugano 1.52, FK Crvena Zvezda 0.89.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16David von BallmoosG
- 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
- 17Lars Lukas MaiD
- 3Hannes DelcroixD
- 2Bekhruz KarimovM
- 25Uran BislimiM
- 8Anto GrgićM
- 21Yanis CimignaniM
- 11Renato SteffenF
- 27Daniel Dos SantosF
- 9Albian AjetiF
- 24Elias PihlströmF
- 91Kevin BehrensF
- 30Dereck MoncadaF
- 7Ezgjan AlioskiD
- 22Beckham CastroF
- 99Diego MinaG
- 28Felix GebhardtG
- 4Damian KelvinD
- 26Martim MarquesD
- 1MatheusG
- 37Vladimir LučićD
- 60Matej GaštarovD
- 45Stefan GudeljD
- 3Yuta NakayamaD
- 23Mihailo RistićD
- 21Timi Max ElšnikM
- 33Rade KrunićM
- 20Tomás HändelM
- 22Vasilije KostovM
- 9Ahmadou Bamba DiengF
- 70Muhammed-Cham SaračevićM
- 27Matej StrikaD
- 8Kristiyan BalovF
- 6Mahmudu BajoM
- 7Marko ArnautovićF
- 50Savo RadanovićG
- 77Ivan GutešaG
- 30Franklin TeboD
- 13Miloš VeljkovićD
Form going into FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda
FC Lugano
- W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
- W4-1FC St. Gallen16 September 2026
- D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026
- W3-0Radnicki NIS20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Železničar Pančevo17 September 2026
- W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.
- FK Crvena Zvezda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 30 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda
- 15 October 2026FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- K. Behrens61
FK Crvena Zvezda
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for FC Lugano and 0.89 for FK Crvena Zvezda; the game produced 3 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: A. Ajeti 25' (FC Lugano), T. Elsnik 32' (FK Crvena Zvezda), R. Krunic 67' (FK Crvena Zvezda), D. Moncada 84' (FC Lugano), A. Grgic 89' (FC Lugano).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Lugano against 0.89 for FK Crvena Zvezda. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.99 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.