Heart of Midlothian
vs
FC Nordsjaelland
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Heart of Midlothian 1-1 FC Nordsjaelland.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Heart of Midlothian, 28% draw, 28% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.51, FC Nordsjaelland 1.12.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland
Heart of Midlothian
- W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
FC Nordsjaelland
- D0-0Odense9 October 2026
- L1-4away to Viborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Aarhus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
- FC Nordsjaelland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Heart of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premiership · Superliga
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland
- 15 October 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 FC NordsjaellandUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- J. McPake34
- Cláudio Braga32
- C. Miller31
FC Nordsjaelland
GoalsAssists
- A. Lind31
- H. Boe Rasmussen31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.7 for FC Nordsjaelland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 1.12 for FC Nordsjaelland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.87 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.73 and 1.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 1.12 for FC Nordsjaelland. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.01 for FC Nordsjaelland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.