League Stage - 1 · 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Gent vs Aarhus UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Planet Group Arena, Gent
Referee: Bulat Sariyev, Kazakhstan
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Gent 1-0 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Gent, 23% draw, 15% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Gent 2.02, Aarhus 0.73.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Gent vs Aarhus

46%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 13%1-0 12%1-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gent at 62% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gent98%Draw2%Aarhus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
🔁M. Andersonout: F. Emmery
46'
🔁D. L. Gretarssonout: T. Molgaard
🔁S. Van Der Heydenout: M. Diallo
46'
58'
J. Bogere
62'
🔁K. Arnstadout: M. Knudsen
🔁M. Volckaertout: H. Goore
66'
M. Delorge
73'
76'
M. Solbakken
77'
🔁E. Kahlout: F. Tingager
77'
🔁M. Solbakkenout: J. Jonsson
🔁M. Delorgeout: L. Lopes
77'
T. De Vlieger
86'
⚽H. Gooreassist: T. Araujo
87'

Match stats — Gent vs Aarhus

52%Possession48%
22Shots4
4On target1
11Corners2
2.24xG0.23

Goals against chances

Gent1 from 2.24 xGless than the chances were worth
Aarhus0 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gent 3-1-4-2
  • 33Davy RoefG
  • 3Maksim PaskotsiD
  • 16Christian BurgessD
  • 44Siebe Van der HeydenD
  • 27Tibe De VliegerM
  • 7Michel Ange BalikwishaM
  • 57Matties VolckaertM
  • 17Mathias DelorgeM
  • 20Tiago AraújoM
  • 75Ibrahima CisseF
  • 11Momodou SonkoF
Substitutes
  • 56Mamadou DialloD
  • 45Hyllarion GooreF
  • 22Leonardo LopesM
  • 30Kjell PeersmanG
  • 18Matisse SamoiseM
  • 39Abdul AyindeD
  • 8László BénesM
  • 10Aimé OmgbaM
  • 14Kyrell WilsonF
Aarhus 3-5-2
  • 21Mads HedenstadG
  • 25Colin RöslerD
  • 3Daníel GrétarssonD
  • 19Eric KahlD
  • 26Jacob AndersenM
  • 18Callum McCowattM
  • 7Markus SolbakkenM
  • 10Kristian ArnstadM
  • 23Mikael AndersonM
  • 27Stefen TchamcheF
  • 28James BogereF
Substitutes
  • 39Frederik EmmeryF
  • 14Tobias MølgaardD
  • 4Magnus KnudsenM
  • 5Frederik TingagerD
  • 16Jens JønssonM
  • 42Marius van der RaadG
  • 1Jesper HansenG
  • 33Luka CalløD
  • 29Rasmus CarstensenD

Form going into Gent vs Aarhus

Gent

  • W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
  • W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Genk13 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
  • W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026

Aarhus

  • W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
  • D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
  • D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
  • L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Gent went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Gent scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Gent110010+13
34Aarhus100101-10

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gent vs Aarhus

  • 15 October 2026Gent 1–0 AarhusUEFA Europa Conference League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.02 goals for Gent and 0.73 for Aarhus; the game produced 1 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: H. Goore 87' (Gent).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gent the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Gent against 0.73 for Aarhus. Gent's attack/defence rating is 0.97/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.21 for Aarhus.