Egnatia Rrogozhinë
vs
FC Midtjylland
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-1 FC Midtjylland.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 22% draw, 62% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 6.25, 4.55 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.86, FC Midtjylland 2.21.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 62% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 98Mario DajsinaniG
- 22Guillem JaimeD
- 33Eneo BitriD
- 28Eljon SotaD
- 29Andrey YagoD
- 17Altin KryeziuM
- 6Albano AleksiM
- 20Karim LoukiliM
- 77Ildi GrudaF
- 2Daniel AdjessaF
- 10Alessandro AlbaneseF
- 55Geralb SmajliD
- 8Ibrahim DiabatéM
- 99Jurguens MontenegroF
- 24Numan AjetovikjD
- 7Fernando MedeirosM
- 12Bruno PujaG
- 1Levan TandilashviliG
- 4Zamiq AliyevD
- 13Alessandro KacbufiD
- 25Nordin BakkerG
- 5Rasmus KristensenD
- 4Ousmane DiaoD
- 22Mads Bech SørensenD
- 98David Martínez MoralesM
- 20Hong Hyun-seokM
- 8Philip BillingM
- 21Denil CastilloM
- 38Julius EmefileM
- 10Gue-sung ChoF
- 9Mileta RajovićF
- 29Kjell WätjenM
- 18Stanley IheanachoF
- 90Friday EtimF
- 27Sofus JohannesenM
- 17Mikael UhreF
- 60Mark UgbohG
- 30Ovie EjeheriG
- 15Beni JuniorD
- 34Abdou Aziz NdiayeD
Form going into Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- L1-2away to Lillestrom27 August 2026
- D0-0Lillestrom20 August 2026
- W5-1Shamrock Rovers13 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers4 August 2026
- D1-1away to Celje28 July 2026
FC Midtjylland
- W2-1FC Copenhagen11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Odense19 September 2026
- W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
- D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aarhus2 September 2026
What these results say
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland
- 15 October 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 FC MidtjyllandUEFA Europa Conference League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.86 goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 2.21 for FC Midtjylland; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: I. Gruda 26' (Egnatia Rrogozhinë), Cho Gue-Sung 33' (FC Midtjylland).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë against 2.21 for FC Midtjylland. Egnatia Rrogozhinë's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.94 for FC Midtjylland.