Brighton
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Brighton 4-0 Kauno Žalgiris.
Before kick-off the model made it 88% Brighton, 8% draw, 4% Kauno Žalgiris — fair odds of 1.14, 12.50 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Brighton 4.07, Kauno Žalgiris 0.60.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 88% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris
Brighton
- W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026
- W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
Kauno Žalgiris
- W1-0Beşiktaş27 August 2026
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş20 August 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Zagreb11 August 2026
- L0-5away to Dinamo Zagreb4 August 2026
- W1-0KI Klaksvik29 July 2026
What these results say
- Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | Premier League | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 13 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Kauno Žalgiris has not started the league season yet. Full tables: Premier League · UEFA Europa Conference League
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris
- 15 October 2026Brighton 4–0 Kauno ŽalgirisUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß34
- M. De Cuyper22
- C. Kostoulas21
Kauno Žalgiris
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
A clear gap in the ratings
Brighton carry a model rating of 7.14 against 6.37 for Kauno Žalgiris. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 4.07 goals for Brighton and 0.60 for Kauno Žalgiris. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brighton rate 1.35 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kauno Žalgiris rate 0.66 and 1.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 88%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 4.07 expected goals for Brighton against 0.60 for Kauno Žalgiris. Brighton's attack/defence rating is 1.35/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.75 for Kauno Žalgiris.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.