1899 Hoffenheim
vs
Beşiktaş
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% 1899 Hoffenheim, 25% draw, 36% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.75, Beşiktaş 1.65.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
1899 Hoffenheim
- L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026
Beşiktaş
- W4-1Marseille17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 9 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
- 15 October 20261899 Hoffenheim 1–2 BeşiktaşUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş
1899 Hoffenheim
No league goals yet this season.
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- V. Černý10
- I. Fakili10
- A. Murillo10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1899 Hoffenheim carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.9 for Beşiktaş. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.65 for Beşiktaş. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.05 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beşiktaş rate 1.12 and 1.01.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Beşiktaş, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.65 for Beşiktaş. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/1.01 for Beşiktaş.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.