Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Anderlecht
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Anderlecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Dinamo Zagreb, 26% draw, 32% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 1.70, Anderlecht 1.40.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb
- D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026
Anderlecht
- L1-2Lyon16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht
- 13 December 2018Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 AnderlechtUEFA Europa League
- 4 October 2018Anderlecht 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb
No league goals yet this season.
Anderlecht
GoalsAssists
- M. CvetkoviÄ10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.82 for Anderlecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.40 for Anderlecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.04 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Anderlecht rate 0.93 and 0.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 1.40 for Anderlecht. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.99 for Anderlecht.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.