Bournemouth
vs
Sturm Graz
UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Bournemouth, 25% draw, 20% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.83, Sturm Graz 0.89.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bournemouth at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Bournemouth
- W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
Sturm Graz
- D0-0Rennes16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
- 15 October 2026Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Bournemouth carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.66 for Sturm Graz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Bournemouth and 0.89 for Sturm Graz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bournemouth rate 1.03 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sturm Graz rate 0.72 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bournemouth against 0.89 for Sturm Graz. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.08 for Sturm Graz.