Al Khaleej Saihat
vs
Al-Fayha
Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Khaleej Saihat 2-0 Al-Fayha.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Al Khaleej Saihat, 29% draw, 32% Al-Fayha — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.39, Al-Fayha 1.21.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Model insights: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Khaleej Saihat at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 96Marwan Al HaidariG
- 39Saeed Al HamsalD
- 17Abdullah Al HafithD
- 3Mohammed Al KhabraniD
- 5Pedro RebochoD
- 11Saleh Al AmriM
- 8Omar MascarellM
- 12Majed KanabahM
- 97Fahad Al RashidiM
- 7J. KingF
- 99M. BarrowF
- 14Ali Al ShaafiD
- 90Thamer Al KhaibriF
- 27Fawaz Al SaqourD
- 13Ahmad AsiriD
- 9M. BenegasF
- 15Mansour HamziF
- 1M. Abbas IbrahimG
- 4K. KouyatéD
- 18Nawaf Al SaadiF
- 52O. MosqueraG
- 22Mohammed Al BaqawiD
- 2Mukhir Al RashidiD
- 25O. ColleyD
- 24Ahmed BamasudD
- 23JasonM
- 5Hugo MouraM
- 6Ali Al HussainM
- 40Yago SantanaM
- 30Alfa SemedoF
- 17LázaroF
- 9Malek Al AbdulmanamF
- 14Mansor Al BesheM
- 1Abdulraoof Al-DeqeelG
- 7Nawaf Al-HarthiM
- 27S. Al HarbiF
- 21Ziyad Al SahafiD
- 43Fahad Majed AlhubayshiM
- 77R. EnadF
- 84Hameed Shoei HazaziD
Form going into Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha
Al Khaleej Saihat
- D1-1away to Al-Ettifaq10 October 2026
- D1-1Al-Nassr12 September 2026
- D0-0Al Riyadh7 September 2026
- L0-3away to NEOM3 September 2026
Al-Fayha
- D1-1Al Riyadh11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al Shabab12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad8 September 2026
- D2-2Al Kholood3 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Khaleej Saihat did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al Khaleej Saihat conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al Khaleej Saihat had two goals or fewer.
- Al-Fayha did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al-Fayha scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Fayha conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha
- 28 January 2026Al-Fayha 3–1 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 13 September 2025Al Khaleej Saihat 3–0 Al-FayhaPro League
- 20 February 2025Al-Fayha 0–0 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
- 20 September 2024Al Khaleej Saihat 0–0 Al-FayhaPro League
- 21 December 2023Al Khaleej Saihat 3–0 Al-FayhaPro League
- 12 August 2023Al-Fayha 3–1 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.39 goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.21 for Al-Fayha; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Joshua King 52' (Al Khaleej Saihat), Mateo Benegas 80' (Al Khaleej Saihat).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Khaleej Saihat the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.21 for Al-Fayha. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.41 for Al-Fayha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.