Al-Ahli Jeddah
vs
Al-Nassr
Pro League postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 39% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 25% draw, 36% Al-Nassr — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.76, Al-Nassr 1.69.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Model insights: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC8 September 2026
- W5-0Al Riyadh4 September 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Hilal1 September 2026
Al-Nassr
- W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
- W2-1Abha9 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
- W2-1Al Taawon28 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Nassr had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr
- 29 April 2026Al-Nassr 2–0 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 2 January 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–2 Al-NassrPro League
- 23 August 2025Al-Nassr 2–2 Al-Ahli JeddahSuper Cup
- 13 February 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–3 Al-NassrPro League
- 13 September 2024Al-Nassr 1–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 15 March 2024Al-Ahli Jeddah 0–1 Al-NassrPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney111
- Trincão52
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo40
- Ângelo32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.94 for Al-Nassr. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.69 for Al-Nassr. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah rate 1.12 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Nassr rate 1.15 and 0.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al-Nassr, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 7.2% chance of the title and Al-Nassr 16.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 1.69 for Al-Nassr. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.96 for Al-Nassr.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.