Mardin 1969
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Mardin 1969 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Mardin 1969, 32% draw, 26% Fatih Karagümrük — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Mardin 1969 1.19, Fatih Karagümrük 0.83.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Model insights: Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mardin 1969 at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. KardeşlerG
- 27K. AlıcıD
- 25M. ŞengülD
- 15U. GezerD
- 3N. YardımcıD
- 47M. WilksM
- 16A. KabakM
- 91T. TeklićM
- 10Z. DimitrovM
- 9O. KayodeF
- 8Đ. DenićF
- 29Ö. KahveciG
- 70Enes ErolM
- 64B. DoğanD
- 11B. BalatM
- 17E. KorkmazD
- 33E. TaşdemirD
- 77D. TaşkanF
- 45O. YıldırımF
- 7Ş. ÇetinM
- 1M. SilvestriG
- 25M. SarıkayaD
- 4D. BiraschiD
- 28A. ÇınarD
- 21Candan BaskaleD
- 19Y. OnogoM
- 20M. SiopisM
- 22R. CivelekM
- 5E. AkbabaM
- 7Baris KalayciM
- 9C. TosunF
- 23B. ŞenG
- 11T. ÇukurF
- 6R. YalçınM
- 17Tarık Buğra KalpaklıF
- 27Muhammed KadiogluD
- 98B. EvliG
- 41J. EsenM
- 14Marius Tresor DohM
- 53Kaan Arda DemirM
Form going into Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük
Mardin 1969
- W2-1away to Bursaspor11 October 2026
- L0-1Kayserispor20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK13 September 2026
- W1-0Bodrum FK7 September 2026
Fatih Karagümrük
- D1-1Muğlaspor11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Esenler Erokspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Manisa F.K.13 September 2026
- L3-4away to Batman Petrolspor6 September 2026
What these results say
- Mardin 1969 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Mardin 1969 had two goals or fewer.
- Fatih Karagümrük scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük
- 15 October 2026Mardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük1. Lig
Leading scorers: Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük
Mardin 1969
GoalsAssists
- T. Teklić31
- O. Kayode31
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.19 goals for Mardin 1969 and 0.83 for Fatih Karagümrük; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Zdravko Dimitrov 10' (Mardin 1969).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mardin 1969 the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Mardin 1969 against 0.83 for Fatih Karagümrük. Mardin 1969's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.33 for Fatih Karagümrük.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.