Regular Season - 10 · 14 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor 1. Lig prediction

Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi, Istanbul
Referee: Berkay Erdemir

Our model says: Ümraniyespor 1–0 Boluspor

The model makes it 54% Ümraniyespor, 26% draw, 20% Boluspor — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Ümraniyespor 1.74, Boluspor 0.83.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Ümraniyespor are 17th on 7 points from 9 games; Boluspor are bottom on 1 point from 9 games — 1. Lig.
  • Ümraniyespor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sarıyer.
  • Boluspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Antalyaspor.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 February 2026, ended Ümraniyespor 4–2 Boluspor.

More TFF 1. Lig predictions

All TFF 1. Lig predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor

47%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ümraniyespor win Draw Boluspor win
  1. 1–013%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–012%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Ümraniyespor first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 33%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ümraniyespor at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor

Ümraniyespor

  • D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Bandırmaspor18 September 2026
  • L1-2Antalyaspor12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Pendikspor5 September 2026
  • L0-1Muğlaspor1 September 2026

Boluspor

  • L0-1Antalyaspor10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sarıyer19 September 2026
  • D1-1Pendikspor12 September 2026
  • L0-6away to Bandırmaspor5 September 2026
  • L0-2Keçiörengücü1 September 2026

What these results say

  • Ümraniyespor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Ümraniyespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Ümraniyespor had two goals or fewer.
  • Boluspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Boluspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Ümraniyespor9144710-37
20Boluspor9018321-181

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Ümraniyespor

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today

Win 22%
Draw 29%
Defeat 32%

Boluspor

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 94% today

Win 92%
Draw 94%
Defeat 96%

From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor

  • 17 February 2026Ümraniyespor 4–2 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 23 September 2025Boluspor 0–1 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
  • 15 March 2025Ümraniyespor 1–0 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 1 November 2024Boluspor 3–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
  • 13 April 2024Boluspor 1–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
  • 25 November 2023Ümraniyespor 1–2 Boluspor1. Lig

The two sides

Ümraniyespor carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.04 for Boluspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Ümraniyespor and 0.83 for Boluspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Ümraniyespor rate 0.48 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boluspor rate 0.44 and 2.23.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ümraniyespor the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Ümraniyespor against 0.83 for Boluspor. Ümraniyespor's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.23 for Boluspor.

Season stats

ÜmraniyesporBoluspor
9Matches9
1W 4D 4LRecord0W 1D 8L
7 0.8 per gameGoals scored3 0.3 per game
10 1.1 per gameGoals conceded21 2.3 per game
2 of 9Clean sheets0 of 9
3 of 9Failed to score6 of 9
–Penalties scored–
15 1.7 per gameYellow cards20 2.2 per game
0Red cards1
4-3-3 9×Usual shape4-1-4-1 4×

Ümraniyespor at home · Boluspor away

5Played4
0W 3D 2LRecord0W 0D 4L
3–5Goals for – against1–12
1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Lig matches this season: Ümraniyespor 9, Boluspor 9.

Ümraniyespor scored 210022
Boluspor conceded 356124
Boluspor scored 101100
Ümraniyespor conceded 121132

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Ümraniyespor

Boluspor

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.