Batman Petrolspor
vs
İstanbulspor
1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Batman Petrolspor 4-2 İstanbulspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Batman Petrolspor, 21% draw, 20% İstanbulspor — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Batman Petrolspor 2.57, İstanbulspor 1.34.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Model insights: Batman Petrolspor vs İstanbulspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Batman Petrolspor at 59% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Batman Petrolspor vs İstanbulspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13B. TetikG
- 27Ö. ArtanD
- 4M. MertD
- 21DóriaD
- 3Y. SubaşıD
- 6Jo Jin-HoM
- 77BennyM
- 8O. GürbulakM
- 26B. ÇağıranM
- 7M. BironM
- 79G. AltıparmakF
- 11O. ImeriF
- 84A. GurylevD
- 15DavidF
- 34M. CissokhoM
- 5E. AydoğanM
- 46Devran BozardicD
- 17G. KaradenizM
- 72P. YaldırF
- 18Karan TopdemirF
- 28A. TutarG
- 11B. NızamD
- 5M. OlogoD
- 4D. SahinD
- 89E. UzunhanD
- 18Turan TuncerD
- 15E. MendyM
- 12K. SönmezM
- 52Ã. DuymazM
- 27M. FallF
- 30Alieu ChamF
- 81A. AkmanF
- 21D. AydınM
- 6I. DayakliM
- 1I. DoganG
- 10I. IlievM
- 34A. KaraM
- 61E. SarıalioğluM
- 9M. SolF
- 25Batuhan YavuzD
Form going into Batman Petrolspor vs İstanbulspor
Batman Petrolspor
- L1-2away to Iğdır FK10 October 2026
- L1-2Bursaspor19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bodrum FK12 September 2026
- W4-3Fatih Karagümrük6 September 2026
İstanbulspor
- L0-1Esenler Erokspor10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Manisa F.K.20 September 2026
- L0-4away to Kayserispor14 September 2026
- L1-2Iğdır FK7 September 2026
What these results say
- Batman Petrolspor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Batman Petrolspor had three goals or more.
- Batman Petrolspor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- İstanbulspor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- İstanbulspor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 19 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Batman Petrolspor vs İstanbulspor
- 22 February 2015Batman Petrolspor 0–1 İstanbulspor3. Lig - Group 1
- 3 October 2014İstanbulspor 2–0 Batman Petrolspor3. Lig - Group 1
- 12 May 2012İstanbulspor 0–1 Batman Petrolspor3. Lig - Group 2
- 30 December 2011Batman Petrolspor 0–2 İstanbulspor3. Lig - Group 2
Leading scorers: Batman Petrolspor and İstanbulspor
Batman Petrolspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
İstanbulspor
GoalsAssists
- Alieu Cham31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.57 goals for Batman Petrolspor and 1.34 for İstanbulspor; the game produced 4 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Buğra Çağıran 31' (Batman Petrolspor), Sami Gokhan Altiparmak 42' (Batman Petrolspor), Sami Gokhan Altiparmak 46' (Batman Petrolspor), Alieu Cham 47' (İstanbulspor), Mickael Biron 65' (Batman Petrolspor), Mamadou Fall 72' (İstanbulspor).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Batman Petrolspor the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Batman Petrolspor against 1.34 for İstanbulspor. Batman Petrolspor's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.11 for İstanbulspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.