AS Roma
vs
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% AS Roma, 24% draw, 25% Real Madrid — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AS Roma 2.02, Real Madrid 1.24.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Champions League predictions
Model insights: AS Roma vs Real Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 51% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AS Roma vs Real Madrid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 95P. GolliniG
- 23G. ManciniD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 22HermosoD
- 43WesleyM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 17M. KonéM
- 20N. MolinaM
- 18M. SouléM
- 21P. DybalaM
- 14D. MalenF
- 77E. LulliD
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 7L. PellegriniM
- 61N. PisilliM
- 2D. RenschD
- 32D. VásquezG
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 9S. CastroF
- 70G. De MarziG
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 7Vinícius JúniorM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 9EndrickF
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 15A. GülerM
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 13A. LuninG
- 26Sergio MestreG
Form going into AS Roma vs Real Madrid
AS Roma
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026
Real Madrid
- W2-1Inter8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | AS Roma | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 |
| 8 | Real Madrid | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Real Madrid
- 27 November 2018AS Roma 0–2 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
- 19 September 2018Real Madrid 3–0 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
- 8 August 2018Real Madrid 2–1 AS RomaInternational Champions Cup
- 8 March 2016Real Madrid 2–0 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
- 17 February 2016AS Roma 0–2 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: AS Roma and Real Madrid
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen21
Real Madrid
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.02 goals for AS Roma and 1.24 for Real Madrid; the game produced 3 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Marten de Roon 20' (AS Roma), Kylian Mbappé 25' (Real Madrid), Donyell Malen 51' (AS Roma), Donyell Malen 57' (AS Roma), Carlos Espí 83' (Real Madrid), Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa 85' (Real Madrid), Antonio Rüdiger 90' (Real Madrid).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for AS Roma against 1.24 for Real Madrid. AS Roma's attack/defence rating is 1.55/0.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.53/0.67 for Real Madrid.