League Stage - 3 · 20 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha UEFA Champions League prediction

Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul

Our model says: Fenerbahçe 2–1 Slavia Praha

The model makes it 40% Fenerbahçe, 24% draw, 36% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 1.97, Slavia Praha 1.82.

Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Fenerbahçe are 28th on 1 point from 2 games; Slavia Praha are 31st on 0 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
  • Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Rizespor.
  • Slavia Praha are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Zlin.
  • Last 3 meetings: Slavia Praha 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 November 2024, ended Slavia Praha 1–2 Fenerbahçe.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha

73%
Both teams to score
73%
Over 2.5 goals
27%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Fenerbahçe win Draw Slavia Praha win
  1. 1–19%
  2. 2–18%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 3–15%
  6. 3–25%
  7. 1–34%

Scores read Fenerbahçe first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 54%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fenerbahçe at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha

Fenerbahçe

  • L0-6away to Aston Villa14 October 2026
  • D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026

Slavia Praha

  • L0-2away to Sabah FA13 October 2026
  • L2-3Lens10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
28Fenerbahçe201117-61
31Slavia Praha200225-30

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha

  • 28 November 2024Slavia Praha 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League
  • 24 February 2022Slavia Praha 3–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 17 February 2022Fenerbahçe 2–3 Slavia PrahaUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Slavia Praha

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • Talisca40
  • M. Greenwood22

Slavia Praha

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Fenerbahçe carry a model rating of 7.04 against 7.16 for Slavia Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.82 for Slavia Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Fenerbahçe rate 1.37 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Praha rate 1.37 and 0.74.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 1.82 for Slavia Praha. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.37/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.74 for Slavia Praha.

Season stats

FenerbahçeSlavia Praha
7Matches10
4W 1D 2LRecord8W 2D 0L
19 2.7 per gameGoals scored26 2.6 per game
6 0.9 per gameGoals conceded6 0.6 per game
4 of 7Clean sheets5 of 10
1 of 7Failed to score0 of 10
1 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3
10 1.4 per gameYellow cards18 1.8 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape3-4-2-1 7×

Fenerbahçe at home · Slavia Praha away

3Played5
2W 0D 1LRecord4W 1D 0L
13–4Goals for – against11–1
1 of 3Clean sheets4 of 5

League matches only, this season — Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig, Slavia Praha in the Czech Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Fenerbahçe 7 in the Süper Lig, Slavia Praha 10 in the Czech Liga.

Fenerbahçe scored 633403
Slavia Praha conceded 110122

Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Slavia Praha have let in 1 there.

Slavia Praha scored 543343
Fenerbahçe conceded 102111

Slavia Praha score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Fenerbahçe

Slavia Praha

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.