Napoli
vs
Bodo/Glimt
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Napoli 2–1 Bodo/Glimt
The model makes it 60% Napoli, 22% draw, 18% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Napoli 2.36, Bodo/Glimt 1.11.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Napoli: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Napoli are 32nd on 0 points from 2 games; Bodo/Glimt are 24th on 3 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Napoli are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Frosinone.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Kristiansund BK.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Napoli at 60% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt
Napoli
- L1-3away to Villarreal13 October 2026
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
Bodo/Glimt
- W1-0Borussia Dortmund14 October 2026
- L0-5away to Bayern München10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 | Bodo/Glimt | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Napoli carry a model rating of 7.17 against 6.95 for Bodo/Glimt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.36 goals for Napoli and 1.11 for Bodo/Glimt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Napoli rate 1.32 in attack and 0.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bodo/Glimt rate 1.13 and 0.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bodo/Glimt, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Napoli against 1.11 for Bodo/Glimt. Napoli's attack/defence rating is 1.32/0.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.92 for Bodo/Glimt.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Napoli at home · Bodo/Glimt away
League matches only, this season — Napoli in the Serie A, Bodo/Glimt in the Eliteserien. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Napoli 6 in the Serie A, Bodo/Glimt 22 in the Eliteserien.
Napoli score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Bodo/Glimt have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Napoli
- vs AS Roma24 Oct · Serie Awin 30%
- at Monza28 Oct · Serie Awin 61%
- at Juventus1 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at FC Porto4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 22%
Bodo/Glimt
- vs Valerenga24 Oct · Eliteserienwin 75%
- vs Viking30 Oct · Eliteserienwin 43%
- vs Lille3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
- at Tromso8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.