Sabah FA
vs
Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Sabah FA 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
The model makes it 28% Sabah FA, 26% draw, 46% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sabah FA 1.23, Borussia Dortmund 1.75.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Borussia Dortmund are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sabah FA are 22nd on 3 points from 2 games; Borussia Dortmund are 18th on 3 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Sabah FA are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Neftchi Baku.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Werder Bremen.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 46% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund
Sabah FA
- W2-0Slavia Praha13 October 2026
- L0-4away to Manchester United10 September 2026
Borussia Dortmund
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt14 October 2026
- W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Sabah FA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund
Sabah FA
GoalsAssists
- J. Mickels41
- V. Simić30
Borussia Dortmund
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sabah FA carry a model rating of 6.87 against 7.21 for Borussia Dortmund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Sabah FA and 1.75 for Borussia Dortmund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sabah FA rate 1.01 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borussia Dortmund rate 1.29 and 0.63.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sabah FA against 1.75 for Borussia Dortmund. Sabah FA's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.29/0.63 for Borussia Dortmund.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sabah FA at home · Borussia Dortmund away
League matches only, this season — Sabah FA in the Premyer Liqa, Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Sabah FA 6 in the Premyer Liqa, Borussia Dortmund 5 in the Bundesliga.
Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sabah FA have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sabah FA
- vs Qarabag25 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 51%
- at Turan31 Oct · Premyer Liqawin 47%
- at Viking4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
- vs Şamaxı FK7 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 71%
Borussia Dortmund
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt24 Oct · Bundesligawin 68%
- vs Werder Bremen27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 66%
- at Bayern München31 Oct · Bundesligawin 27%
- vs Real Betis4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 54%
- vs SV Elversberg7 Nov · Bundesligawin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.