Champions League predictions

Tuesday 20 October — 9 matches

• 16:45 UTC Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha — model 40% / 24% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 4.17 · 2.78. Evenly matched
• 16:45 UTC Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund — model 28% / 26% / 46%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 3.85 · 2.17. One-sided: Borussia Dortmund
• 19:00 UTC Liverpool vs Villarreal — model 49% / 23% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.04 · 4.35 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC — model 58% / 22% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.72 · 4.55 · 5.00. Edge: Manchester City
• 19:00 UTC Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona — model 39% / 24% / 37%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 4.17 · 2.70. Head-to-head record. Tight game · draw in reach
• 19:00 UTC VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid — model 38% / 25% / 37%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 4.00 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
• 19:00 UTC FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven — model 60% / 21% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.67 · 4.76 · 5.26. Edge: FC Porto
• 19:00 UTC Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt — model 60% / 22% / 18%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.67 · 4.55 · 5.56. Edge: Napoli
• 19:00 UTC AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava — model 84% / 11% / 5%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.19 · 9.09 · 20.00. One-sided: AS Roma

Wednesday 21 October — 9 matches

• 16:45 UTC Lille vs Galatasaray — model 53% / 23% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.35 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 16:45 UTC Como vs Manchester United — model 51% / 24% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.17 · 4.00. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Aston Villa vs Viking — model 48% / 24% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 4.17 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Bayern München vs Arsenal — model 48% / 25% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 4.00 · 3.70. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Sporting CP vs Lask Linz — model 83% / 10% / 7%, most likely 4-1, fair odds 1.20 · 10.00 · 14.29. One-sided: Sporting CP
• 19:00 UTC Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk — model 71% / 16% / 13%, most likely 3-1, fair odds 1.41 · 6.25 · 7.69. Head-to-head record. One-sided: Inter
• 19:00 UTC Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig — model 56% / 22% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.55 · 4.55. Edge: Real Madrid
• 19:00 UTC Real Betis vs Feyenoord — model 46% / 25% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 4.00 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 19:00 UTC Club Brugge KV vs Lens — model 68% / 18% / 14%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.47 · 5.56 · 7.14. One-sided: Club Brugge KV

Last round: the model's hits and misses

13–14 October: the model called the result of 10 of 18 matches.

• Lens 0–2 Sporting CP — the model said 32% / 23% / 45%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Sabah FA 2–0 Slavia Praha — the model said 31% / 25% / 44%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Arsenal 3–0 Lille — the model said 58% / 25% / 17%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Atletico Madrid 2–0 Manchester United — the model said 52% / 22% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Galatasaray 1–4 Barcelona — the model said 26% / 21% / 53%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Inter 3–4 Club Brugge KV — the model said 51% / 22% / 27%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV Eindhoven — the model said 50% / 23% / 27%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Viking 3–3 Bayern München — the model said 27% / 24% / 49%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Villarreal 3–1 Napoli — the model said 39% / 25% / 36%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Feyenoord 3–2 Como — the model said 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Lask Linz 3–6 Liverpool — the model said 26% / 22% / 52%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid — the model said 51% / 24% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Aston Villa 6–0 Fenerbahçe — the model said 45% / 23% / 32%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Real Betis 3–2 FC Porto — the model said 33% / 26% / 41%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Borussia Dortmund — the model said 32% / 26% / 42%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain — the model said 57% / 22% / 21%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens FC — the model said 35% / 26% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Slovan Bratislava 0–3 VfB Stuttgart — the model said 29% / 25% / 46%, most likely 1-2: result correct.