Feyenoord
vs
Como
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Feyenoord 3-2 Como.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Feyenoord, 26% draw, 31% Como — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Feyenoord 1.74, Como 1.41.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Feyenoord vs Como
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Feyenoord at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Feyenoord vs Como
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. ErnstG
- 26G. ReadD
- 6J. St. JusteD
- 35Mika MàrmolD
- 16Javi LópezD
- 8G. ZechiëlM
- 34C. VanhoutteM
- 28O. TarghallineM
- 23A. Hadj-MoussaF
- 19Nacho FerriF
- 10L. ValenteF
- 11Gonçalo BorgesF
- 36J. ZinhagelF
- 39L. BossinG
- 20M. DeijlD
- 27G. DiarraF
- 33F. KastenmeierG
- 24T. KraaijeveldM
- 57J. SchakenF
- 14S. SteijnM
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 28I. SmolčićD
- 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 99T. ChalobahD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 6Luis MillaM
- 5M. PerroneM
- 11Assane DiaoM
- 20M. BaturinaM
- 16KaikiM
- 10N. PazF
- 17Jesús RodríguezF
- 21S. RicciM
- 30M. LiberaliM
- 2M. KempfD
- 12Lorenzo Luigi GinelliG
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 13A. DossenaD
- 7L. da CunhaM
- 27Yan CoutoD
Form going into Feyenoord vs Como
Feyenoord
- L1-5away to Barcelona9 September 2026
Como
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Como | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs Como
- 14 October 2026Feyenoord 3–2 ComoUEFA Champions League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.74 goals for Feyenoord and 1.41 for Como; the game produced 3 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Assane Diao Diaoune 18' (Como), Gjivai Zechiel 20' (Feyenoord), Anis Hadj Moussa 52' (Feyenoord), Robert Sanchez 81' (Feyenoord), Anastasios Douvikas 90' (Como).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Feyenoord against 1.41 for Como. Feyenoord's attack/defence rating is 1.26/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.71 for Como.