League Stage - 2 · 14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Tehelne Pole Stadion, Bratislava
Referee: Irfan Peljto
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Slovan Bratislava 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Slovan Bratislava, 24% draw, 47% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 3.45, 4.17 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Slovan Bratislava 1.43, VfB Stuttgart 1.96.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart

66%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%1-2 9%2-1 7%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VfB Stuttgart at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Ramon Hendriks
26'
Bilal El Khannouss
29'
⚽Deniz Undavassist: Angelo Stiller
64'
⚽Sandro Cruz (OG)
71'
🔁Chris Führichout: Leo Sauer
71'
🔁Dženan Pejčinovićout: Jamie Leweling
🔁Cristian Martínezout: artur gajdos
75'
🔁Sandro Cruzout: Kevin Wimmer
75'
77'
Josha Vagnoman
80'
🔁Angelo Stillerout: Atakan Karazor
81'
🔁Bilal El Khannoussout: Ermedin Demirović
🔁Tigran·Barseghyanout: Roman Cerepkai
81'
🔁Andraž Šporarout: Alasana Yirajang
81'
🔁Suleiman Camaraout: Nino Marcelli
81'
Peter·Pokorny
85'
86'
🔁Josha Vagnomanout: Lorenz Assignon
90'
⚽Ermedin Demirovićassist: Lorenz Assignon

Match stats — Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart

36%Possession64%
15Shots16
1On target8
1Corners8
0.82xG2.21

Goals against chances

Slovan Bratislava0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth
VfB Stuttgart3 from 2.21 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Slovan Bratislava 4-2-3-1
  • 71D. TakáčG
  • 28C. BlackmanD
  • 12K. BajričD
  • 15S. MarkovićD
  • 57Sandro CruzD
  • 3P. PokornýM
  • 20A. MustafićM
  • 11T. BarseghyanM
  • 70Cristian Jesús MartínezM
  • 21Suleiman CamaraM
  • 99A. ŠporarF
Substitutes
  • 8A. GajdošM
  • 5R. IbrahimM
  • 77D. IgnatenkoM
  • 2S. KozlovskýD
  • 10N. MarcelliM
  • 29A. MarošF
  • 88D. MatsuokaM
  • 1A. PopovićG
  • 6K. WimmerD
Coach: Yaya Touré
VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 4J. VagnomanD
  • 29Finn JeltschD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 21G. PrömelM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 26D. UndavM
  • 10C. FührichM
  • 17D. PejčinovićF
Substitutes
  • 47Y. SpaltD
  • 41D. SeimenG
  • 44L. SauerF
  • 18J. LewelingF
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 14L. JaquezD
  • 33M. FunkG
  • 9E. DemirovićF
  • 22L. AssignonD
Coach: S. Hoeneb

Form going into Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart

Slovan Bratislava

  • L1-6away to Paris Saint Germain9 September 2026

VfB Stuttgart

  • W3-1Viking9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
36Slovan Bratislava200219-80
4VfB Stuttgart220061+56

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart

  • 21 January 2025Slovan Bratislava 1–3 VfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Slovan Bratislava and VfB Stuttgart

Slovan Bratislava

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

VfB Stuttgart

GoalsAssists

  • E. Demirović40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.43 goals for Slovan Bratislava and 1.96 for VfB Stuttgart; the game produced 0 and 3.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Deniz Undav 29' (VfB Stuttgart), Sandro Cruz 64' (VfB Stuttgart), Ermedin Demirović 90' (VfB Stuttgart).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives VfB Stuttgart the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Slovan Bratislava against 1.96 for VfB Stuttgart. Slovan Bratislava's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.91 for VfB Stuttgart.