Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
AEK Athens FC
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Shakhtar Donetsk, 26% draw, 40% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.48, AEK Athens FC 1.62.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Champions League predictions
Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31D. RiznykG
- 17Vinícius TobiasD
- 5V. BondarD
- 22M. MatvienkoD
- 13PedrinhoD
- 27O. OcheretkoM
- 30Alisson SantanaM
- 10PedrinhoM
- 6Marlon GomesM
- 11NewerttonM
- 9Kauã EliasF
- 99BruninhoM
- 23K. FesyunG
- 25Gabriel CarvalhoF
- 14IsaqueM
- 20O. KaravaevM
- 8D. KryskivM
- 49Luca MeirellesF
- 37Lucas FerreiraM
- 77G. MendozaM
- 91A. BrignoliG
- 12L. RotaD
- 2H. MoukoudiD
- 44Filipe RelvasD
- 3S. PiliosD
- 14L. MajerM
- 27M. VitálisM
- 18R. MarinM
- 11A. KoitaM
- 90ZiniF
- 9L. JovićF
- 21D. VidaD
- 10O. ZubkovM
- 19B. VargaF
- 20P. MantalosM
- 22C. LykogiannisD
- 6K. KairinenM
- 23João MárioM
- 8M. GaćinovićM
- 41Marios BalamotisG
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
Shakhtar Donetsk
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven10 September 2026
AEK Athens FC
- W1-0Lask Linz8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 20 | AEK Athens FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
- 13 July 2023AEK Athens FC 5–0 Shakhtar DonetskFriendlies Clubs
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.48 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.62 for AEK Athens FC; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lovro Majer 28' (AEK Athens FC), Pedrinho 34' (Shakhtar Donetsk), Vinícius Tobias 80' (Shakhtar Donetsk), Gleiker Mendoza 86' (Shakhtar Donetsk).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 1.62 for AEK Athens FC. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.7 for AEK Athens FC.