Manchester City
vs
Paris Saint Germain
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Manchester City 2-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Manchester City, 22% draw, 21% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Manchester City 2.34, Paris Saint Germain 1.25.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Champions League predictions
Model insights: Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester City at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 5E. AndersonM
- 17E. FernándezM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 11J. DokuM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 21R. Aït-NouriD
- 37AllanF
- 13M. BettinelliG
- 32A. BouaddiM
- 47P. FodenM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 82R. LewisD
- 7I. NdiayeF
- 27Matheus NunesM
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 25Nuno MendesD
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryM
- 17VitinhaM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 11M. AklioucheF
- 10O. DembéléF
- 14D. DouéF
- 12L. DigneD
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 21L. HernándezD
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
- 87João NevesM
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
Form going into Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain
Manchester City
- W2-0away to FC Porto8 September 2026
Paris Saint Germain
- W6-1Slovan Bratislava9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Manchester City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain
- 22 January 2025Paris Saint Germain 4–2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
- 24 November 2021Manchester City 2–1 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
- 28 September 2021Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
- 4 May 2021Manchester City 2–0 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
- 28 April 2021Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
- 12 April 2016Manchester City 1–0 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Manchester City and Paris Saint Germain
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland40
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- O. Dembélé33
- Ferran Torres30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.34 goals for Manchester City and 1.25 for Paris Saint Germain; the game produced 2 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Désiré Doue 13' (Paris Saint Germain), Ousmane Dembélé 15' (Paris Saint Germain), Vitinha 32' (Paris Saint Germain), Erling Haaland 53' (Manchester City), Maghnes Akliouche 62' (Paris Saint Germain), Erling Haaland 75' (Manchester City).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Manchester City against 1.25 for Paris Saint Germain. Manchester City's attack/defence rating is 1.65/0.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.42/0.73 for Paris Saint Germain.