Lask Linz
vs
Liverpool
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Lask Linz 3-6 Liverpool.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Lask Linz, 22% draw, 52% Liverpool — fair odds of 3.85, 4.55 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Lask Linz 1.50, Liverpool 2.34.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Champions League predictions
Model insights: Lask Linz vs Liverpool
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Liverpool at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 9 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lask Linz vs Liverpool
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. JungwirthG
- 20K. JørgensenD
- 4X. MbuyambaD
- 43AlemãoD
- 16A. AndradeD
- 25Y. DibangoD
- 9K. DaněkM
- 6M. BogardeM
- 18A. SchöpfM
- 27C. LangM
- 7S. AdeniranF
- 23Daniel ElfadliM
- 29F. FleckerF
- 3M. FreckletonD
- 11S. KalajdzicF
- 45N. KaneF
- 10R. LjubičićM
- 50Fabian SchillingerG
- 33T. SchützenauerG
- 21M. VerhaegheD
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 33R. AraújoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 42T. NyoniM
- 73R. NgumohaM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 67L. KoumasF
- 2J. GomezD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 53J. McConnellM
- 23Víctor MuñozF
- 4V. van DijkD
- 28F. WoodmanG
- 76J. DannsF
Form going into Lask Linz vs Liverpool
Lask Linz
- L0-1away to AEK Athens FC8 September 2026
Liverpool
- W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Lask Linz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Liverpool
- 30 November 2023Liverpool 4–0 Lask LinzUEFA Europa League
- 21 September 2023Lask Linz 1–3 LiverpoolUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Lask Linz and Liverpool
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- F. Flecker30
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- B. Barcola30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.50 goals for Lask Linz and 2.34 for Liverpool; the game produced 3 and 6.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ronald Araujo 22' (Liverpool), Bradley Barcola 24' (Liverpool), Bradley Barcola 37' (Liverpool), Jeremie Frimpong 51' (Liverpool), Robert Ljubicic 63' (Lask Linz), Bradley Barcola 66' (Liverpool), Lewis Koumas 72' (Liverpool), Florian Flecker 74' (Lask Linz), Florian Flecker 77' (Lask Linz).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lask Linz against 2.34 for Liverpool. Lask Linz's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/0.84 for Liverpool.