League Stage - 2 · 14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Betis vs FC Porto UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Estadio de la Cartuja, Seville
Referee: Clement Turpin
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Real Betis 3-2 FC Porto.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Real Betis, 26% draw, 41% FC Porto — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Real Betis 1.44, FC Porto 1.65.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Real Betis vs FC Porto

62%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%1-2 9%2-1 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Porto at 41% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Betis95%Draw5%FC Porto0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

42'
•Borja Sainz
42'
Francesco Farioli
⚽Abde Ezzalzouliassist: Francisco José García Torres
47'
54'
⚽Gabri Veiga
56'
André Silva
Nelson Deossa
56'
Abde Ezzalzouli
56'
59'
🔁Borja Sainzout: Oskar Pietuszewski
59'
🔁André Silvaout: Samuel Aghehowa
59'
🔁Martim Fernandesout: Alberto Costa
61'
⚽Samuel Aghehowaassist: Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa
🔁Nelson Deossaout: Dani Ceballos
62'
🔁Troy Parrottout: Cucho Hernández
62'
71'
🔁Gabri Veigaout: Hwang In-Beom
73'
Alan Gonzalo Varela
⚽Cucho Hernándezassist: Antony Matheus dos Santos
74'
Dani Ceballos
77'
•Ángel Ortiz
82'
⚽Isco (pen)
84'
85'
🔁Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossaout: Santiago Giménez
86'
Santiago Giménez
🔁Iscoout: Facundo Bernal
87'
🔁Marc Rocaout: Pablo Fornals
87'
🔁Antony Matheus dos Santosout: Rodrigo Riquelme
90'
Ángel Ortiz
90+3'

Match stats — Real Betis vs FC Porto

56%Possession44%
17Shots11
7On target5
5Corners1
1.76xG1.02

Goals against chances

Real Betis3 from 1.76 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Porto2 from 1.02 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Betis 4-2-3-1
  • 1Álvaro VallésG
  • 12Ángel OrtizD
  • 5Marc BartraD
  • 4NatanD
  • 11Fran GarcíaD
  • 18N. DeossaM
  • 21Marc RocaM
  • 7AntonyM
  • 22IscoM
  • 10A. EzzalzouliM
  • 19T. ParrottF
Substitutes
  • 6F. BernalM
  • 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
  • 27J. A. MoranteF
  • 20G. Lo CelsoM
  • 3Diego LlorenteD
  • 9C. HernándezF
  • 16V. GómezD
  • 2Héctor BellerínD
  • 25Dani CeballosM
Coach: M. Pellegrini
FC Porto 4-3-3
  • 99Diogo CostaG
  • 52Martim FernandesD
  • 13P. RosarioD
  • 4J. KiwiorD
  • 74Francisco MouraD
  • 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
  • 22A. VarelaM
  • 10Gabri VeigaM
  • 17Borja SainzF
  • 19André SilvaF
  • 11Pepê AquinoF
Substitutes
  • 42S. FofanaM
  • 29S. GiménezF
  • 64Luís GomesD
  • 16Hwang In-BeomM
  • 18N. PérezD
  • 77O. PietuszewskiF
  • 9SamuF
  • 33SouzaD
  • 92João Pedro Moreira TeixeiraM
Coach: F. Farioli

Form going into Real Betis vs FC Porto

Real Betis

  • W3-2away to Lille8 September 2026

FC Porto

  • L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Real Betis220064+26
30FC Porto200225-30

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Betis vs FC Porto

  • 14 October 2026Real Betis 2–2 FC PortoUEFA Champions League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.44 goals for Real Betis and 1.65 for FC Porto; the game produced 3 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Abde Ezzalzouli 47' (Real Betis), Gabri Veiga 54' (FC Porto), Samuel Aghehowa 61' (FC Porto), Cucho Hernández 74' (Real Betis), Isco 84' (Real Betis).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Real Betis against 1.65 for FC Porto. Real Betis's attack/defence rating is 1.26/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.44/0.59 for FC Porto.