League Stage - 2 · 14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Villa Park, Birmingham
Referee: Ivan Kruzliak
Full time6 – 0

Final score: Aston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahçe.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Aston Villa, 23% draw, 32% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).

Expected goals: Aston Villa 2.27, Fenerbahçe 1.84.

Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

More Champions League predictions

All Champions League predictions →

Model insights: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe

76%
Both teams to score
78%
Over 2.5 goals
22%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 8%1-1 7%2-2 7%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Aston Villa at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aston Villa99%Draw1%Fenerbahçe0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Johan Manzambi
12'
⚽Nicolas Jacksonassist: Boubacar Kamara
31'
⚽Nicolas Jacksonassist: Ross Barkley
39'
42'
Mattéo Guendouzi
⚽Ross Barkley (pen)
68'
69'
🔁Mason Greenwoodout: Nene Dorgeles
69'
🔁Vedat Muriqiout: Romelu Lukaku
69'
🔁Ismail Yüksekout: Bartuğ Elmaz
⚽Ross Barkleyassist: Ibrahim Mbaye
72'
🔁Boubacar Kamaraout: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
73'
🔁Johan Manzambiout: João Gomes
73'
78'
Oğuz Aydın
🔁Nicolas Jacksonout: Tammy Abraham
78'
🔁Ibrahim Mbayeout: Alejandro Garnacho
79'
🔁Ross Barkleyout: Leon Goretzka
83'
⚽Tammy Abrahamassist: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
90'

Match stats — Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe

45%Possession55%
20Shots15
11On target4
9Corners7
3.15xG1.75

Goals against chances

Aston Villa6 from 3.15 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fenerbahçe0 from 1.75 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Z. SuzukiG
  • 2M. CashD
  • 3V. LindelöfD
  • 14Pau TorresD
  • 29A. Wan-BissakaD
  • 8B. KamaraM
  • 6R. BarkleyM
  • 7J. McGinnM
  • 44J. ManzambiM
  • 19I. MbayeM
  • 11N. JacksonF
Substitutes
  • 18T. AbrahamF
  • 10E. BuendíaM
  • 17A. GarnachoF
  • 35João GomesM
  • 27L. GoretzkaM
  • 5T. MingsD
  • 42J. WrightG
  • 47Alysson EdwardF
  • 26L. BogardeM
Coach: Unai Emery
Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 31EdersonG
  • 27Nélson SemedoD
  • 37M. ŠkriniarD
  • 15N. AkéD
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 5İ. YüksekM
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 17İ. KahveciM
  • 70O. AydınM
  • 19V. MuriqiF
Substitutes
  • 13T. ÇetinG
  • 14Y. DemirD
  • 28B. ElmazM
  • 34M. GünokG
  • 91N. KantéM
  • 9R. LukakuF
  • 22L. MercanD
  • 77O. MimovićD
  • 45N. DorgelesF
Coach: İ. Kartal

Form going into Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe

Aston Villa

  • W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026

Fenerbahçe

  • D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Aston Villa220092+76
28Fenerbahçe201117-61

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe

  • 22 January 2026Fenerbahçe 0–1 Aston VillaUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe

Aston Villa

GoalsAssists

  • N. Jackson30

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • Talisca40
  • M. Greenwood22

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.27 goals for Aston Villa and 1.84 for Fenerbahçe; the game produced 6 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Johan Manzambi 12' (Aston Villa), Nicolas Jackson 31' (Aston Villa), Nicolas Jackson 39' (Aston Villa), Ross Barkley 68' (Aston Villa), Ross Barkley 72' (Aston Villa), Tammy Abraham 90' (Aston Villa).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Aston Villa the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Aston Villa against 1.84 for Fenerbahçe. Aston Villa's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.95 for Fenerbahçe.