Boca Juniors
vs
Vasco da Gama
CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction & result
Final score: Boca Juniors 0-1 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Boca Juniors, 25% draw, 21% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.88, Vasco da Gama 0.97.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Chance to go through
First leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Semi-finals tie. Second leg: Vasco da Gama v Boca Juniors, 21 Oct →
Aggregate: Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco da Gama
- Boca Juniors17%
- Level after both legs20%
- Vasco da Gama63%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes per leg, from the score matrices of the legs still to play. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More predictions
Model insights: Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Á. MonteroG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 25S. AscacíbarM
- 15W. AlarcónM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 19L. FloresF
- 30E. ValenciaF
- 7C. PalaciosF
- 11Á. RomeroF
- 26Marco PellegrinoD
- 53Joaquín RuízF
- 22S. VillaF
- 12L. BreyG
- 27M. BraidaM
- 6R. BattagliaM
- 32A. CostaD
- 4N. FigalD
- 1Léo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 5S. SosaM
- 28AdsonM
- 22A. LescanoM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 11A. GómezM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 7DavidF
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 8JairM
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 2J. RodríguezD
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama
Boca Juniors
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026
- W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
Vasco da Gama
- W2-0Santa Fe15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W4-1away to Olimpia20 August 2026
- D0-0Olimpia13 August 2026
What these results say
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Boca Juniors had three goals or more.
- Vasco da Gama went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Vasco da Gama kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Vasco da Gama had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama
- 14 October 2026Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Vasco da Gama
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel31
Vasco da Gama
GoalsAssists
- Adson53
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.88 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.97 for Vasco da Gama; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Adson 25' (Vasco da Gama).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Boca Juniors against 0.97 for Vasco da Gama. Boca Juniors's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.18 for Vasco da Gama.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.