Ittihad Tanger
vs
Maghreb Fès
Botola Pro prediction & result
Final score: Ittihad Tanger 2-1 Maghreb Fès.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Ittihad Tanger, 32% draw, 38% Maghreb Fès — fair odds of 3.33, 3.13 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Ittihad Tanger 0.94, Maghreb Fès 1.13.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Botola Pro predictions
Model insights: Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maghreb Fès at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès
Line-ups
- 12M. BarcolaG
- 22Z. KianiD
- 6B. ElouadghiriD
- 4M. SaoudD
- 15A. LaaziriD
- 10M. El ArouchM
- 8G. MohutsiwaM
- 7Y. NajariM
- 18Soufyan AhannachF
- 17Abdel MaaliM
- 31ibrahim diengF
- 25A. AzmiG
- 67H. BakhlakhM
- 20E. El BellaliM
- 34mohamed guartit elM
- 2R. El MelianiD
- 21H. El MoudeneM
- 24Akram El WahabiD
- 27S. KhorsaD
- 23A. LamrabatD
- 16S. ChihabG
- 20S. GhedamsiD
- 27M. JaouabD
- 15A. KhafifiD
- 21M. OuhrouM
- 8A. HarmachM
- 6Oussama nourdineM
- 7K. BabaF
- 14A. BrikaM
- 18C. IbayiF
- 26D. TitusF
- 22Hamza allah aitD
- 29E. BrijaM
- 5A. ChbaniD
- 17A. El MahraouiF
- 12O. ErrahmanyG
- 30H. AfsalM
- 9Tshegofatso MabasoF
- 28Narcisse ouedraogoF
- 19A. TahiriM
Form going into Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès
Ittihad Tanger
- L1-2away to Kawkab Marrakech10 October 2026
- D1-1Moghreb Tetouan2 October 2026
- W3-1away to Amal Tiznit24 September 2026
Maghreb Fès
- D0-0Raja Casablanca8 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hassania Agadir3 October 2026
- W2-1CR Khemis Zemamra27 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ittihad Tanger | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Maghreb Fès | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ittihad Tanger vs Maghreb Fès
- 22 May 2026Maghreb Fès 0–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 25 October 2025Ittihad Tanger 1–1 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 8 March 2025Maghreb Fès 1–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 3 November 2024Ittihad Tanger 1–1 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 27 March 2024Maghreb Fès 2–2 Ittihad TangerCup
- 9 March 2024Maghreb Fès 2–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.94 goals for Ittihad Tanger and 1.13 for Maghreb Fès; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Christopher Ibayi 32' (Maghreb Fès), mohamed saoud 74' (Ittihad Tanger), Hamza El Moudene 77' (Ittihad Tanger).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maghreb Fès the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Ittihad Tanger against 1.13 for Maghreb Fès. Ittihad Tanger's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.27 for Maghreb Fès.