Regular Season - 4 · 13 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

FUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca Botola Pro prediction & result

Stade Moulay El Hassan, Rabat
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FUS Rabat 1-1 Raja Casablanca.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% FUS Rabat, 33% draw, 42% Raja Casablanca — fair odds of 4.00, 3.03 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).

Expected goals: FUS Rabat 0.75, Raja Casablanca 1.13.

Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: FUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca

36%
Both teams to score
29%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-1 17%0-0 16%1-1 14%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Raja Casablanca at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FUS Rabat2%Draw95%Raja Casablanca3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Adel Bettaiebassist: Bouchaib Arrassi
Issam Naji
45+1'
46'
🔁Adel Bettaiebout: youness dahmani
61'
🔁ishak zidaniout: Mohamed Abu Zraiq
🔁Issam Najiout: Mohamed Bakhkhach
68'
⚽Mohamed Bakhkhachassist: Amine Souane
69'
70'
🔁Younes Bakizout: azzeddine laftah
70'
🔁Felipinhoout: mohamed makaazi
🔁Deo Bassingaout: Ismail Moutaraji
79'
79'
🔁Mathias Oyewusiout: Mounaim El Idrissy
🔁Amine Souaneout: hamza bouhadi
85'

Match stats — FUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca

44%Possession56%
10Shots10
7On target1
2Corners3

Line-ups

FUS Rabat 4-4-2
  • 97A. LakredG
  • 31Fernando Data ChambocoD
  • 3A. LemsenD
  • 14A. SouaneM
  • 2F. KarmouneM
  • 9M. LahtimiM
  • 8A. MaherM
  • 6Issam NajiM
  • 5A. SerrhatM
  • 28Déo Gracias Maurile Gloire BassingaF
  • 21Emanuel andersonF
Substitutes
  • 32abderahmane arkideD
  • 17M. BakhkhachF
  • 42hamza bouhadiD
  • 11A. El HarrakM
  • 7C. FaidiF
  • 10H. FerdaoussiM
  • 1Hamza LizoulG
  • 18I. MoutarajiM
  • 49S. TaziF
Coach: Ricardo Formosinho
Raja Casablanca 4-2-3-1
  • 1El Mehdi Al HarrarG
  • 8I. ZidaniD
  • 13B. BenounD
  • 3K. ChemseddineD
  • 17A. El AmloudD
  • 2Marian HujaD
  • 6A. BarkokM
  • 14Y. BakizF
  • 21A. BettaiebF
  • 10FelipinhoF
  • 99M. OyewusiF
Substitutes
  • 88A. LaftahF
  • 24A. KhammasD
  • 27Mohammed Abu ZurayqM
  • I. KhafiF
  • M. El IdrissyF
  • 11Y. DahmaniF
  • 33B. ArrassiD
  • 23M. Al MakahasiM
  • 12K. KbiriG
Coach: Paco Jémez

Form going into FUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca

FUS Rabat

  • D0-0away to Moghreb Tetouan9 October 2026
  • L0-1Amal Tiznit2 October 2026
  • L1-2away to UTS Rabat26 September 2026

Raja Casablanca

  • D0-0away to Maghreb Fès8 October 2026
  • W1-0CR Khemis Zemamra3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Botola Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15FUS Rabat402224-22
6Raja Casablanca312021+15

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FUS Rabat vs Raja Casablanca

  • 26 April 2026Raja Casablanca 4–1 FUS RabatBotola Pro
  • 13 September 2025FUS Rabat 0–2 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
  • 26 January 2025FUS Rabat 2–1 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
  • 2 October 2024Raja Casablanca 1–0 FUS RabatBotola Pro
  • 10 March 2024FUS Rabat 0–1 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
  • 6 November 2023Raja Casablanca 2–0 FUS RabatBotola Pro

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 0.75 goals for FUS Rabat and 1.13 for Raja Casablanca; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Adel Bettaieb 20' (Raja Casablanca), Mohamed Bakhkhach 69' (FUS Rabat).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Raja Casablanca the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for FUS Rabat against 1.13 for Raja Casablanca. FUS Rabat's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.26 for Raja Casablanca.